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Interviews and articles about populism, nationalism, memory, the far right...
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Nostalgia isn't only for those who lived it. The oldest, who remember the dictatorships, tend to be the least nostalgic in both countries. Younger cohorts tend to idealise a past they never lived. Memory evolves, stigma fades. How we transmit the past matters.

Bar chart showing average authoritarian nostalgia across age groups. - Combines three dimensions: regime evaluation, mythical past, and democratic attitudes - Displays variation across age cohorts - Indicates how nostalgia is distributed generationallyBar chart showing average authoritarian nostalgia by age. - Based on same composite indicators as Figure 15 - Shows generational variation in Spain - Allows comparison with Portuguese case
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A paradox: parties and voters do the opposite. VOX praises Franco rather openly, yet only ~11% of its voters see continuity with him. Chega uses dog-whistles, yet 55%+ of its voters see continuity with Salazar. 81% of PSOE voters link VOX to Franco; only 42% of PS voters link Chega to Salazar.

Bar chart with two measures: - Whether Chega is seen as a threat to democracy - Whether it is associated with Salazar’s ideas - Left-wing voters overwhelmingly see Chega as a threat - Majority of Chega voters do not - Moderate share of voters link Chega to SalazarBar chart with two measures: - Perceived democratic threat - Association with Franco - Left-wing voters strongly perceive threat - VOX voters largely reject both threat and Franco link - Stronger perceived link to Franco than in Portugal
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Some examples: ~45% of Chega voters consider Salazar a great statesman and ~42% say his ideas should be followed today, vs ~23% and ~19% nationally. ~48% of VOX voters say Franco's ideas should be followed today, vs ~18% nationally.

Bar chart showing agreement with statements evaluating the Salazar regime across party electorates. - Chega voters display the highest levels of authoritarian nostalgia - Left-wing voters show low but non-zero agreement - Nostalgia exists across the electorate but varies in intensity - No group exceeds majority agreement - Includes 95% confidence intervals"Bar chart showing agreement with statements about Franco’s regime across party voters. - VOX voters show the highest levels of nostalgia - Levels approach or exceed three times national averages - Other party voters show lower but present levels - Patterns reflect normalisation of Franco references - Includes 95% confidence intervals
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The breakthrough of the far right was fast. More like an explosion. VOX and Chega entered their respective national parliaments in 2019, and by now they are already the third and second party per seats. Iberian exceptionalism is over.

Founded in April 2019, Chega rapidly entered the Assembleia da República, with Ventura winning a seat in Lisbon by October that year. Ventura came third in the 2021 presidential elections, which are formally non-partisan, and Chega consolidated its parliamentary presence in the following snap elections, becoming Portugal’s third most-voted party and second for seats. In 2026, Ventura was the second most voted candidate at the presidential elections, forcing a second round that was not necessary since 1986. VOX initially failed to gain parliamentary representation in the 2015 and 2016 national elections, but its breakthrough came in Andalusia in December 2018, winning 11 per cent of the vote and becoming pivotal in forming a right-wing government. Its rise accelerated quickly: in April 2019, VOX entered the Cortes Generales with 24 seats, increasing to 52 in November after capturing over 15 per cent of the vote, becoming Spain’s third political force. Although it holds fewer seats today (33, following the 2023 elections), VOX remains an essential partner for PP-led governments across multiple regions and municipalities.
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For decades, the stigma of the dictatorships acted as a firewall, or vaccine. Franco's regime executed ~150,000 Republicans and jailed up to 500,000; Salazar's PIDE kept files on ~3 million people. Portugal had a revolution, Spain a "pact of silence". Both delayed the far right. Neither stopped it.

This figure maps the historical stages of political development in Spain and Portugal, from republics to contemporary democracies. It highlights key periods: Stage 1 – Republics: Establishment of the Spanish Second Republic (1931–36) and Portuguese First Republic (1910–26). Stage 2 – Authoritarian Coups: The unsuccessful Nationalist coup in Spain (1936) versus the successful military coup in Portugal (1926), leading to the Ditadura Nacional. Interlude – War: The Spanish Civil War (1936–39) disrupted Spain’s republican trajectory. Stage 3 – Authoritarianism: Francoist dictatorship in Spain (1939–75) and Estado Novo in Portugal (Salazar 1932–68; Caetano 1968–74). Stage 4 – Transition: Negotiated break in Spain (1975–77) and the Portuguese Revolution (1974–75) marked transitions from authoritarianism. Stage 5 – Democracy: Both countries subsequently established democratic political systems.This figure compares key political and social factors in Spain and Portugal that may influence far-right mobilisation: Democratic Transition: Spain experienced a negotiated pact, whereas Portugal underwent a revolutionary rupture. Collective Memory: Spain shows a tendency toward cancellation of authoritarian legacies, while Portugal demonstrates heroisation of certain aspects of the past. Authoritarian Successor Parties: Spain has maintained authoritarian successor parties, whereas Portugal has no successor parties. Stigma: Both countries retain a present stigma toward authoritarianism, although its intensity and social consequences vary. Far-Right Success: Neither country shows significant far-right success in institutional terms (until 2019)
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