@turnbulldugarte.com
[trying to spend less time on social media]
#ihadablackdog
https://youtu.be/XiCrniLQGYc?si=q-gQTNXfScmgtl4k
@joenoonan.seReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comHow did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade
@danjdevine.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.com❗ There's a permanent, research and teaching lectureship over at the University of Surrey in the broad area of behaviour, attitudes, parties, etc.
@leonardocarella.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comIn other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.
@populismblog.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comNew book out 🔥
The Fascist Zeitgeist.
Authoritarian Legacies and the Iberian Far Right.
(Elements in the History and Politics of Fascism
@universitypress.cambridge.org)
How is the success of the Iberian far right linked to the memory of Franco and Salazar?
@turnbulldugarte.comSome of the models we currently have on a hypothetical broad front assumes no differential behaviour between current intentions and intentions under this alternative. A reasonable assumption, but also a bold one given personalities involved.
@turnbulldugarte.comSure - very hard to know how it will play out given uncertainty about i) how many part(ies) will be on ballot to the left of Sánchez (meaning N of parties overall that pass threshold), ii) who would lead these, and iii) how far current polls would be off under different hypothetical constellations
@turnbulldugarte.comThree years comes at you fast, but there is a universe where I write "Sánchez resists (again)!" in a couple of months' time
@turnbulldugarte.comThree years ago VOX underperformed compared to their 2019 ceiling. We won't see this in Nov - they will pass 2019 this time.
I would wager we also won't see the below-avg. turnout we saw in 2023. Election during mass protest seems pretty inductive for high turnout
@turnbulldugarte.comAt this rate, these two months are going the be very eventful
@turnbulldugarte.comFolks don't like it when you call the Spanish right "Trumpian" (although I'd tent to place Madrid's Ayuso unambiguously in that camp). But here you have the leader of the opposition casting doubt on the trustworthiness of postal voting.
@turnbulldugarte.comExcited to present this talk tomorrow. If you're interested in attending drop me a DM and will share the link.
@ebharrington.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.com"Gyms for our brains," you say?
@bookshop.orgReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comAnti-Prime Day starts…NOW! 🥳 Today through midnight on 10/7, enjoy free shipping site-wide, all while supporting local, independent bookstores.
@ejpgjournal.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comDo women candidates help the far right? Not in Britain, finds @turnbulldugarte.com in #EJPG. In 2024, Reform UK's women candidates won no more votes than men, and the gender gap in Reform support was, if anything, wider where it ran a woman.
@turnbulldugarte.comCongrats Frederik!
@frederikthieme.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comWhy do green parties struggle electorally despite widespread support for climate action? My new (first 😱) paper explores why green parties remain uniquely challenged in economic crisis & that the mechanism is not only about sociotropic concerns, but also voters’ pocketbooks 🧵
doi.org/10.1017/S147...
@turnbulldugarte.comSánchez calls early elections. All those televised 'no' votes will be seen again in some campaign ads soon.
@turnbulldugarte.comYou might not like him, but Sánchez knows how to play Spain is experiencing mass protests on housing crisis. Sánchez says: let's accelerate intro. of two reforms. Congress says: you don't have enough votes. Sánchez says: suspend e-voting in congress & make every MP stand up on camera to say "no"...
@turnbulldugarte.com[Insert jtust move to Scotland and vote Yes on indyref2 joke]
@tabouchadi.bsky.socialReposted by @turnbulldugarte.comFor my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions.
2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%)
1 doc: 2 years (75%)
Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable)
Application deadline: 1 November
