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Vicente Valentim

@valentimvicente.bsky.social

1.9k Following7.4k Followers

Assistant prof at IE University. Previously EUI and Oxford.

Researching what we think is ok to do in a democracy & how that changes.

Book on the normalization of the radical right: https://academic.oup.com/book/57946

More at www.vicentevalentim.com

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@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 9:03 AM

I’ve read the book and it doesn’t end so well

@jakemgrumbach.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:54 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment.

www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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@caprosser.comOct 9, 2026, 1:20 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

🚨Job alert! 🚨

Come work with us on the British Election Study!

We are looking for a postdoc to join the new BES team: 5 year contract, starting in Jan 2027.

Happy to chat if you've got any questions.

Applications close 12 Nov, for details see: jobs.royalholloway.ac.uk/Vacancy.aspx...

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:18 PM

Extremely thankful @emmylindstam.bsky.social @amaliaab.bsky.social @sergio-galazgarcia.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social @amuitz.bsky.social & Patrick Kraft for organizing this.

If you are around Madrid on Oct 22-23, consider joining the annual conference!

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:18 PM

One of the most exciting things about doing social science in Madrid is how much the city is becoming a hub for top notch work. MESS brings together people doing so at different departments. It's such an amazing resource.

@iepolisci.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:13 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

More information about the seminar series, how to attend, and the full list of talks in this academic year (as well as those of previous academic years) can be found at www.ieprg.com

@iepolisci.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:13 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

Next Thursday (15th, 11h45), we are excited to have @sofiavasilopoulou.bsky.social (KCL) in our Seminar Series. She will present a paper entitled "Participating in globalisation: How local trade integration affects second-dimension preferences".

@leonardocarella.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:33 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 6:39 AM

This is appalling in and of itself, but it’s also incredibly shortsighted. The right ex ante had a huge advantage going into an election and are giving it up for the sake of signaling allegiance to big capital.

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 6:39 AM

The Spanish PP (main right wing party) is opposing a minute of silence for Maricarmen Abascal, who became a symbol of the housing crisis in the county and who died last night.

@gelliottmorris.comSep 23, 2026, 1:07 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

@gelliottmorris.comSep 23, 2026, 12:07 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

Yes. here you go. Trump’s approval is significantly below where it was in 2018

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 7:12 PM

I really look forward to reading this book:

@carnes.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 4:39 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

The real reason working-class people almost never become politicians anywhere is that running for office is extremely personally burdensome, and that screens out the people who live the most precarious lives, including working-class people.

@carnes.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 4:39 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

It's finally publication day for this decade-in-the-making book. @noamlupu.bsky.social and I explain why working-class jobs make up 70% of the average democracy's labor force, but only 2% of the average democracy's national lawmakers had working-class jobs when they got into politics.

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 7:19 PM

Do you read it as a move? I don’t think it was certain they would lose the vote. And I think that public opinion moving to this issue at this time was fairly exogenous. He did take advantage of all of that, but I’d be less confident that he created it.

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 7:09 PM

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 4:30 PM

No. They have collaborated many times at the local level and it’s a general understanding that there will be a PP-Vox government if the right has a majority.

@robfordmancs.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 1:21 PMReposted by @valentimvicente.bsky.social

Same has happened in Britain. Speed with which such extreme ideas have become mainstream is concerning.

@valentimvicente.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 1:19 PM

Very interesting, thanks for flagging! I will be looking out for this when it’s out.

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