Yes! Ultimately what I was trying to distill it down to, an underlying formula; & now it's becoming more clear that approaching from the fail states makes sense. I taught middle school math in a former life & even focused on probs to hopefully make things a little more interesting for the kids...😵‍💫🤯

I'm continuing to work on my Mothership hack inspired by service work & The Bear, & I am unabashedly stealing strings from Monsterhearts (2) here Instead of getting strings when you turn someone on, perhaps you earn them when you escalate the situation, making it worse specifically for that person

(3/10)+[(7/10)^1*(3/10)^1]+[(7/10)^2*(3/10)^1]

Awesome. The pattern is now well and truly beginning to reveal itself...

If I were to increase the number of dice to 3, would it then be 30+21+(.7*.7*.3) = 30+21+14.7 = 65.7 ?

Repopulating the original sheet with the correct math

I am like a child building sand castles on the beach, but same.

Ah yes but if I had used the online probability calculators I wouldn't have delved into the how/why to the same degree. I'm not 100% there yet but now I can go for the calculators once I start getting into higher number territory.

"Behold, like a wild ass I go into the desert to do my work."

More a matter of refusing to use an LLM/gen AI, even moreso for paying for it. Anydice is cool and now I might start fiddling with it more.

The Bakers, the Valentines, Jason Morningstar