@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Director, Elections & Analytics, MS NOW | Princeton political science PhD
@theweekendmsnow.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social“More people this year say that they’re voting to send a message against Trump” @kabirkhanna.bsky.social breaks down the “Trump factor” of the midterms as the president continues to drag down the Republican party
@connectwithjacob.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.socialPlease join me on MS NOW 10a-1p w/
@jumaane.bsky.social
Dr. Jonathan D. White
Ayman Mohyeldin
@mosababutoha.bsky.social
@melatkirosco.bsky.social
Dr. Tristan Buckmaster
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social
Ken Salazar
Kelsie Kimberlin
@gelliottmorris.comReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.socialFiftyPlusOne is proud to announce a new deal with MS NOW to provide polling averages and interactive data journalism for digital and broadcast platforms!!
@allinwithchris.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.socialTrump’s comments suggesting Iran “take out” U.S. cities are already putting frontline House Republicans on the defensive in some of the country’s toughest races.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialGallup now finds D+11 advantage on leaned party identification
Bigger than D lead heading into 2018 midterm, and largest it's been since Obama was elected in 2008
Reading also marks fifth quarter D advantage has grown since Trump took office again in 2025
Source: news.gallup.com/poll/654560/...
@theweekendmsnow.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social“If [Dems] flip twice as many voters as Republicans flip, that's enough for them to win” @kabirkhanna.bsky.social breaks down a scenario on what happens could happen if voters change their party stance in November -- after a recent poll found that 11% of Trump voters regret their vote in 2024
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialThese are U.S. Senate races to watch that are currently rated Toss Up or Lean D/R (and had contested statewide primaries on both sides) www.ms.now/news/2026-se...
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialTurnout gap shows up in primaries, specials, and polling... Latest NYT poll of House vote shows D+7 lead with RVs growing to D+9 with likely voters For Ds to win Senate, turnout edge is good foundation but not enough. To win states Trump carried by 10+, Ds also have to flip some of his voters 3/3
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialAggregating all states with measurable partisan turnout, primary votes break down approximately 56% D to 44% R Not perfectly predictive, but party with advantage on this metric has won national House vote in last three midterms D advantage on this metric even larger now than in 2018 blue wave 2/3
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialWith primaries in rearview mirror, it's obvious Democratic enthusiasm translated to big 2026 turnout increases From TX and NC in March, to MI in Aug, and NH recently, Democratic vote totals surpassed GOP totals in several high-profile races (not all) Hasn’t happened in TX for quarter century! 1/3
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialDid you look at presidential years in that time frame (2016, 2020, 2024)?
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialHad the pleasure of joining my @ms.now colleagues @symonedsanders.bsky.social and @eugenedaniels2.bsky.social on Clock It this week, to talk polling and the 2026 elections landscape youtu.be/uOzSViaAG_g?...
@theweekendmsnow.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.social“If you had told me a year ago that the race for Senate control would be a toss up more or less, that would have been quite surprising to me” @kabirkhanna.bsky.social gives a big board update on how the midterm races are shaping up and what both parties must do to control the Senate.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialTrump's job approval at low point of 34%, according to Pew Decline this term primarily from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: approval down from 84% in Feb '25 to 69% now Partisan gaps in both Trump terms are widest in more than seven decades (followed by gaps under Biden and Obama)
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialCongrats Chris!
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialPew finds Democrats regaining advantage on leaned party ID
47% of Americans identify more as Democrats, while 43% identify more as Republicans — essentially even in '24, with most movement among leaners
Consistent w/ increase in % leaning D in Gallup data
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialReposted by @kabirkhanna.bsky.socialWe're hiring! This is an exciting opportunity to build something new in the election analytics space, in a dynamic environment with super smart colleagues. Let me know if you're interested or if you know someone who might be a good fit...
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialWe're hiring! This is an exciting opportunity to build something new in the election analytics space, in a dynamic environment with super smart colleagues. Let me know if you're interested or if you know someone who might be a good fit...
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialNYT polls show Ds have Senate path, but it's close... within margin of error of flipping enough seats to win 51
NC likeliest to flip, ME toss up
Warning in OH/AK/TX/IA: % wanting R control 3-6 pts higher than % voting R; Rs have room to grow if majority looks shaky
@kabirkhanna.bsky.socialAP projects Nithya Raman advancing to general election for Los Angeles mayor Tonight’s update from LA gives her a cushion of over 20,000 votes over Spencer Pratt, making her position in the top two safe So Raman will face incumbent Karen Bass this fall
