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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛

@rmcelreath.bsky.social

1.4k Following18.4k Followers

Anthropologist - Bayesian modeling - science reform - cat and cooking content too - Director @ MPI for evolutionary anthropology https://www.eva.mpg.de/ecology/staff/richard-mcelreath/

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@rmcelreath.bsky.socialMar 22, 2026, 8:02 AM Pinned

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

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@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 10:16 AM

Mischka is planning some mischief this #caturday

cat sitting snugly on a beanbag, which sinks under his weight
@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 6:40 AM

Christian Robert reviews Bayesian Workflow, suggests the abbreviation BaWoFlow. xianblog.fr/2026/10/08/b...

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 2:18 PM

super green

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 1:45 PM

Lichtfest is a Leipzig tradition commemorating the 1989 demonstrations that eventually lead to the fall of the Wall. It mainly involves walking in the rain trying to keep a candle lit womp womp

@danlwarren.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 9:44 PMReposted by @rmcelreath.bsky.social

Reading Statistical Rethinking by @rmcelreath.bsky.social and “If you are confused, it is only because you are trying to understand” is such a great line that I am definitely going to have to quote it when I’m teaching.

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 5:32 AM

confusion is what thinking feels like!

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 5:37 PM

Not yet. I have always assigned in-class short answer exams for courses like this one. I guess if I still assigned essays, I'd have to adjust somehow.

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:04 AM

How Humans Evolved by Boyd,Silk,Langergraber

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 10:48 AM

I haven't taught a survey course in human evolution in the last decade, but starting next week (!!) I will try again. I plan to record the lectures. But the lab practicals can't be shared online, unfortunately. Currently deciding how much math I can/should make the students do

Week	Date	Lecture	Reading	Practical	Study Questions
1	Oct 14	Natural selection	Chapter 1	Darwin's theory	1:1,3,5
2	21	Modern synthesis and pop-gen	Chapter 3	Basic pop-gen	3:1,2,3
3	28	Speciation	Chapter 4	Phylogenetics	4:2,3,8
4	Nov 4	Primate diversity	Chapter 5	Primate anatomy	5:1,5,8
5	11	Primate reproduction	Chapter 6	Mating and parenting	6:2,7,9
6	25	Primate socioecology	Chapter 7	Cooperation	7:1,3,9
7	Dec 2	Primate behavior and cognition	Chapter 8	Brains and life history	8:4,5,8
8	9	Hominin fossil record	Chapters 9,10	Hominin anatomy	9:7; 10:6,10
9	16	Tools and Homo	Chapter 11	Hominin tech 1	11:1,4,5
10	Jan 6	Out of Africa	Chapter 12	Neanderthals etc	12:1,7,12
11	13	Origins of modern behavior	Chapter 13	Hominin tech 2	13:1,8,10
12	20	Human diversity and adaptation	Chapter 14	Genetic diversity	14:5,8,10
13	27	Cultural evolution and technology	Chapter 15	Human behavior	15:1,7,9
14	Feb 3	Cooperation and social organization	Chapter 16	[none]
@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 8:47 AM

these sweet chords represent the decay of scholarly standards

some bars from Afro Blue by Mongo Santamaria
@fabmusacchio.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 5:00 PMReposted by @rmcelreath.bsky.social

Another thing I really liked from @rmcelreath.bsky.social’s talk yesterday: he introduced #BayesianWorkflow, with Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari et al. It’s much more than just #Bayesian inference: …

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Shot with No Fusion by "NC".
Slide compares statistical workflow being narrower than Bayesian workflow, with a link to GitHub.
@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 7:13 AM

Jazz is peripheral? Am I reading that right?

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 8:12 AM

two small children on the train arguing back and forth about how the Luftballon sticks to the seat: it’s MAGIC, no SCIENCE, MAGIC, SCIENCE they laugh though as if they’re agreeing

@secchimribeiro.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 5:43 PMReposted by @rmcelreath.bsky.social

Absolutely engaging talk from @rmcelreath.bsky.social at the Workshop for Data Management at the @unibonn.bsky.social!

Data insurgents, unite! (epidemiologists and economists are also welcome 😂)

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 1:22 PM

Once again grateful that one can get TeX source from arXiv papers, so that I didn't have to typeset Ramanujan's mad formula for pi myself (just an intro slide in a talk I am giving tomorrow)

a slide showing Ramanujan's formula for pi:

\frac{1}{\pi}=\frac{2\sqrt{2}}{9801}\sum_{n=0}^{\infty}\frac{26390n+1103}{\left(n!\right)^4}\cdot \frac{\left(4n\right)!}{396^{4n}}
@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 8:04 AM

It can be hard to define anthropology, because of the field's empirical and theoretical breadth. But an anthropologist is just someone who reads the headline below and yells SHERDS NOT SHARDS

?Unknown authorOct 1, 2026, 7:01 AMReposted by @rmcelreath.bsky.social

priorsense: an R package for prior and likelihood sensitivity checks v1.4.0 is now on CRAN

News:
- joined the @mc-stan.org project. Docs at mc-stan.org/priorsense and dev at github.com/stan-dev/pri...
- reviewed by @ropensci.org
- paper in @joss-openjournals.bsky.social
- more vignettes

@biodiversitypix.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 10:23 AMReposted by @rmcelreath.bsky.social

🦉 Birdcraft: .
New York: Macmillan, 1895..

[Source]

Owl illustration from historical archives
@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 6:24 AM

Who were the sea peoples?! The last Neanderthals?!

@rmcelreath.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 6:22 AM

Not the topic of the retracted paper, but it seems to claim that Neanderthals went extinct at the end of the Bronze Age, which is a marvelous idea for a new Christopher Nolan movie

Population Changes
Neanderthal man had become extinct in Europe by c.1200 B.C., so the population
figures for the succeeding centuries refer to Homo sapiens (Figure 7). The striking feature
is the enormous growth in numbers since the end of World War II. According to the UN,
this is expected to increase to 11–15 million people by the end of this century if nothing
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