@drjeffmasters.bsky.social
Extreme weather and climate change expert writing for Yale Climate Connections. Co-founder, Weather Underground; former hurricane hunter.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialSea level rise at L.A since 1923 has been ~5.5 in., with virtually of that attributable to human-caused climate change. Sea level rise at San Diego since 1906 has been ~9 in., with 70% attributable to human-caused climate change. coastal.climatecentral.org/coastal-risk...
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialCoastal water levels in SoCal are running ~1.5' above normal because of a record-strength El Niño. Rachel's battering waves on top of these elevated waters are likely to cause significant coastal damage during Sunday morning's high tide, with all-time top-10 water levels at San Diego and L.A.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialWarmer waters tend to cause stronger hurricanes. I detail a press release from Climate Central showing the details for Hurricane #Isaias.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialBut you are right, I had the wrong start date for records. Isaias’ surge ranks #2 behind the 6.84’ in Opal (1995), but ahead of the 5.43’ in Dennis (2005), the 5.08’ in Ivan (2004), and the 3.79’ in Michael (2018).
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialThere are 2 tide gauges in Panama City Beach, one at the coast (with the higher surge) and one in the harbor (at the pier), which had a lower storm surge. Fast-moving hurricanes like Isaias tend to bring a larger surge to the coast than into estuaries, since there isn't time to them up.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialThe largest storm surge at any NOAA tide gauge from #Isaias was at Panama City Beach: 5.6' above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). This is their highest water level on record, beating the 3.79' set during Hurricane Michael in 2018. Records are not very long-term, though, extending back only to 2008.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialWith a Hurricane Warning for Isaias on the Gulf Coast, along with a Tropical Storm Watch on the West Coast for Rachel, it’s the first time the National Hurricane Center has issued watches/warnings simultaneously for both coasts.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialA sign of things to come the next 8+ months, I bet: NOAA said "Record-high temperatures encompassed 16.7% of the Earth’s land and ocean surfaces—the largest spatial footprint for any month since records began in January 1951. This value surpassed the previous record of 14.2%, set back in May 2024."
@bhensonweather.bsky.socialReposted by @drjeffmasters.bsky.socialThree landfalls in one weekend!
Fri night:
—Hurricane Isaias, central U.S. Gulf Coast
Sat night:
—TS Simon (MX), near Puerto Vallarta, possibly as a Cat 4
—Rachel (MX), N Baja Calif as tropical storm
The scoop from @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and me:
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialWater levels are already running about 1' above expected at Pensacola, and 2' higher at the mouth of the Mississippi River at Southwest Pass, Louisiana.
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb...
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialThe water level of 3.57' predicted for Pensacola from Isaias would rank as the 9th-highest. Their tidal range is normally ~2', but on Fri/Sat, some of the lowest tides of the month are coming, with a tidal range of only ~0.5'. Thus, surge impacts are not very dependent on landfall timing.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialA steadily intensifying #Isaias is expected to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026. Meanwhile, ex-Hurricane Rachel is likely to bring damaging surf and heavy rains to the California/Mexico border region this weekend, and TD-20-E may hit Mexico as Cat 2 Hurricane Simon this weekend.
@bhensonweather.bsky.socialReposted by @drjeffmasters.bsky.social@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialImpressive fall color at Pictured Rocks on Lake Superior this weekend! Enjoyed a great paddle at Miners Castle yesterday before the winds started cranking.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialSustained winds 34, gusting to 40 mph, at Grand Marais on @lakesuperior today!
@kellyhereid.bsky.socialReposted by @drjeffmasters.bsky.socialFinally got time to go through the full report and it knocked my socks off. Cohesive argument that housing, insurance, energy, and transportation costs should be thought of as one interconnected issue, and we should tackle as a package by building smarter in low hazard areas at SCALE.
@bhensonweather.bsky.socialReposted by @drjeffmasters.bsky.socialHurricane remnents + Gulf inflow are slamming the I-35 corridor from E Neb to SW TX. Lincoln NE had its wettest day in 139 years of recordkeeping on Wed.
The soggy scoop from @irenesans.bsky.social, @drjeffmasters.bsky.social and myself:
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialHurricane #Polo has made two landfalls in Mexico today, and will spread flooding rains of 2-7" over the next few days into the Southwest and Plains in regions that need 8+ inches of rain to pull them out of long-term drought. @bhensonweather.bsky.social and I have the details:
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialYes, we made that request in a subsequent attempt, and the result was satisfactory.
@drjeffmasters.bsky.socialSwimming, anyone? “Entering the ocean should be avoided due to the potential for poor water quality associated with damaged septic systems.”
