I will be traveling today, but will be monitoring closely. I am still considering the potential for a pop-up livestream either late tonight or early tomorrow AM, but may reserve that option only in the 20% high-impact northern track case (as it will be very late at night!).

It is worth noting that this storm will be entirely unremarkable north and west of Orange County, though cool clouds and some showers and thunderstorms will still be possible elsewhere in SoCal. Extremely dangerous ocean conditions are likely region-wide, however.

"Moderate" coastal flooding (which is actually comparable to or worse than what has already recently been observed) is likely, and there is a slight chance of "major" coastal flooding (with significant damage potential), esp. if Rachel takes the 20% odds northern track tonight.

In addition, significant coastal flooding and erosion is likely through Monday across SoCal even if Rachel makes landfall in MX. Ocean levels are already running very high due to El Niño, and Rachel will generate high-energy ocean waves from multiple directions.

The biggest threats, regardless, will be from water and not wind (as is almost always the case with tropical cyclones). Inland flash flooding from heavy rainbands is likely from SE CA deserts and eastern mountain slopes northeastward into W. AZ, S. NV, and UT.

The NWS in San Diego has a nice "3 scenario" outline in their AM area forecast discussion, which includes a ~20% likelihood strong wind/heavy rain scenario for San Diego proper, ~20% likelihood of minimal impacts, and ~50% chance of modest impacts.

Because of the storm's oblique angle of approach and northeastward acceleration, there remains uncertainty regarding exact point of landfall along Pacific Coast. While somewhere between Tijuana and Ensenada most likely, there's still a ~25% chance of a direct hit near San Diego.

Rachel will make landfall somewhere between Ensenada, MX & USA/MX border late tonight. It should be a strong tropical storm at landfall, w/ gusty/potentially damaging winds & hvy rain (esp. east side of storm). TS Warnings in effect for N. Baja; TS Watch continues for far SoCal.

Saturday AM update: Tropical Storm Rachel, despite fairly hostile ambient atmosphere, is indeed strengthening slightly as predicted over record-warm ocean temps & aided by upper-level ventilation from incoming mid-lat trough. Pacific Coast/US SW impacts becoming clearer. [Thread]

A near-coastal track, in addition to increasing wind threat (mainly San Diego County), would also greatly increase coastal flood/erosion risk more broadly throughout SoCal (since ocean levels are already ~18 inches higher than usual right now).

The details will depend on the exact track Rachel takes, which will depend on the *exact* degree of re-strengthening of surface low achieves and the exact position of mid-lat trough interaction. But there is potential for Rachel to bring greater wind impacts vs Hilary in 2023.

Hotel wifi held up! This was recorded live and is now available in case you missed it. I may also do another livestream late Sat night or early Sun morning closer to time of landfall if more northern track materializes...TBD.

Hotel wifi held up! This was recorded live and is now available in case you missed it. I may also do another livestream late Sat night or early Sun morning closer to time of landfall if more northern track materializes...TBD.