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Tim Bale

@timbale.bsky.social

1.2k Following30.3k Followers

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com

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@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:27 AM

I guess that's the proverbial $64,000 question: how many of those would have taken it up anyway?

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:26 AM

With enemies like this, who needs friends?

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 11:17 AM

Wow! Apparently driven by the fact that "67 per cent of UK entrants finish within the standard length of their programme, against 43 per cent across the OECD." (Source: wonkhe.com/wonk-corner/...)

Graphic showing that UK students graduate at a significantly younger age than others in Europe, ie 21.7 years of age as opposed to, for example, Sweden (26.0)
@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:42 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

The Tories’ line-to-take on this - namely that it’s plagiarising policy they announced last year - is nuts: even if it were true, it’s utterly at odds with Badenoch’s attempt at Conference to convince voters that there’s a fundamental difference between the Conservatives and Reform. #MakeYourMindUp!

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 10:38 AM

"People aged 25-34 are vaping more than any others, overtaking 16 to 24-year-olds, with 16.4% using e-cigarettes daily or occasionally." So it's not just all those (pre) adolescent roadman-wannabees, then.

@uglygame.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 10:27 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

Fascinating story illustrating, yet again, that some of the most dubious things that wealthy people get away with rely on respectable law and professional services firms - in respectable places - knowingly assisting their dubious behaviour.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 10:04 AM

Presume it was judged too risky to mix up the couples? 🙄

@chadbourn.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 8:05 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson: “If the Strait of Hormuz is open, why did America reach out to Russia to solve the diesel problem?”

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 8:09 AM

Spot-on. In the late great Jim Bulpitt’s terms, on this issue anyway, Farage has achieved #PoliticalArgumentHegemony

@profalexstevens.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:52 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

Reform: Here's a stupid idea that is totally unworkable in practice. Tories: Oi, that's our idea!

@robfordmancs.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:29 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

Tl;dr - it is predictable right now that the Chancellor, certainly next year and perhaps this year too, will have to spend less and tax more than currently being forecast because the government's immigration outcomes and policy goals directly contradict the assumptions of OBR forecasts

@robfordmancs.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:29 AMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

Another on the list of "things that are obvious from the evidence yet ignored" is "current immigration policy will deliver a great big hole in future budgets". The OBR currently assumes net migration bottoms out at 200k then rises. That isn't going to happen

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:42 AM

The Tories’ line-to-take on this - namely that it’s plagiarising policy they announced last year - is nuts: even if it were true, it’s utterly at odds with Badenoch’s attempt at Conference to convince voters that there’s a fundamental difference between the Conservatives and Reform. #MakeYourMindUp!

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:31 AM

And tearing up the TCA with the EU in the process - and if you think a referendum will create uncertainty for potential investors in the UK, you ain’t seen nothing yet!

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:27 AM

He was ahead of his time.

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:27 AM

NFA - yours, The Language Police. 😁

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:25 AM

Cineworld unlimited!

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 7:25 AM

“On the topic of taking inspiration from Margaret Thatcher, she moved the uprating of the state pension from earnings to inflation, where it stayed until 2011. That is what taking tough a decision really looks like.” @davidgauke.bsky.social

@gdriehuis.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 4:48 PMReposted by @timbale.bsky.social

@timbale.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 6:59 AM

Ooft!

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