@billscher.bsky.social
Politics Editor for @washingtonmonthly.com
@opiniontoday.bsky.socialReposted by @billscher.bsky.socialThe polling industry has its challenges, and no single poll should ever be treated as gospel. But we have lots of other data that buttress the horse-race polling and point strongly toward a Blue Wave.
(@billscher.bsky.social @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social)
washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
@billscher.bsky.socialPresidents with job approval below 40% before a midterm election and presidential party seat losses
Truman (1946)
House: 58
Senate: 12
Truman (1950)
House: 28
Senate: 6
Bush (2006)
House: 30
Senate: 6
Trump (2026)
House ?
Senate ?
@billscher.bsky.socialThank you!
@billscher.bsky.socialIt’s not only horse race polling screaming Blue Wave
* Trump job approval: just 3rd prez under 40 before midterm
* Real disposable income: 5th midterm in 75 years with decline
* Off-year state leg elections: 31 D flips, 0 R
More from me: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/09/w...
@billscher.bsky.social“Why You Should Believe the Polls This Time”
— my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look at all the reasons why a Blue Wave is coming … and why it still doesn’t guarantee a Democratic Senate
@billscher.bsky.socialFor LA-MAYOR, over the past month, save for one internal, neither Bass nor Raman can crack 40%. Undecideds range 17-33%. Highly unusual this late in the game.
@billscher.bsky.social“The Republican Plan to Buy the Election Got Too Expensive”
— my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest on how Republican ad dollars aren’t going as far Democratic dollars because they’re too reliant on super PACs washingtonmonthly.com/2026/10/06/t...
@mattklewis.bsky.socialReposted by @billscher.bsky.socialShmitt happens? On today's DMZ podcast, @billscher.bsky.social and I talk about the 'Gotcha' question that wasn't. ...Then, we dig into why Dems are still having trouble with Susan Collins in Maine. WATCH
@billscher.bsky.socialYou should always be at least a little worried so you don’t get complacent
@billscher.bsky.social“Why Democrats Should Be Most Worried About Troy Jackson (And It’s Not the Consultants)”
Spoiler: it’s his time serving in a state legislative majority
My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest: washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/29/t...
@washingtonmonthly.bsky.socialReposted by @billscher.bsky.socialWhat's the single biggest reason to expect a blue wave in November? Nothing makes voters angrier at the party in power than having less money in their pockets, and real disposable income is down, @billscher.bsky.social writes.
@billscher.bsky.socialIf we take current polling avg as final, Dems net 6 to get to 53 (hold GA/MI/MN/NH, flip AK/IA/ME/NC/OH/TX) To get 55, probably need 2 out of KS/MS/MT/NE/SC (even more optimistically, ID/LA/SD) Not totally crazy! But data doesn’t support it yet.
@billscher.bsky.socialThe 2026 midterm is the 20th since 1950
It’ll be the 5th when real disposable income — money in your pocket after taxes/inflation — from 3Q->2Q, shrunk
And when real disposable income goes down, odds of a wave go up
My @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social latest washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/25/t...
@billscher.bsky.social“This Is the Biggest Reason Why a Blue Wave is Probably Coming”
@billscher.bsky.socialThis is the shock poll of the season. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott down by SIX!
@billscher.bsky.socialYou can figure that from El-Sayed’s 5 point lead!
@billscher.bsky.socialHuge gender gap in NYT polls of ME, MI, NH
MEN
Collins 54 Jackson 38
Rogers 52 El-Sayed 42
Sununu 51 Pappas 42
WOMEN
Jackson 53 Collins 44
El-Sayed 55 Rogers 39
Pappas 57 Sununu 39
@billscher.bsky.socialNYT poll, Michigan
“Tell me whether you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of Hasan Piker Or have you not heard of him?”
Very/somewhat fav 6%
Very/somewhat unfav 34%
Never heard of 54%
@billscher.bsky.social“If You Don’t Like Polls, Follow the Money” — my @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social look at the midterm money trail washingtonmonthly.com/2026/09/22/i...
@billscher.bsky.social
