Explore Log in Sign up

Explore

@alicefrolov.bsky.social Sep 18, 2026, 5:01 PM

Cell-fate partitioning after senescence induction: modeling SASP-driven escape trajectories

#CellularSenescence #SASP #CellCycleReentry #SenescenceEscape #TumorSuppression #NFkBSignaling #SystemsBiology #ComputationalCellBiology

Cell-fate partitioning after senescence induction: modeling SASP-driven escape trajectories

I am sharing a data visualization that formalizes an increasingly discussed but underappreciated phenomenon in the senescence literature: the capacity of a subpopulation of arrested cells to re-enter the cell cycle rather than remaining stably arrested or undergoing clearance.

The figure, titled "Cell-fate partitioning after senescence induction," uses a bidirectional flow trajectory (streamgraph-style stacked area) to render the temporal redistribution of an initial senescent-induced cohort across three terminal or quasi-terminal states over a 30-day window: stable arrest, apoptotic clearance, and senescence escape. The subtitle emphasizes that these are simulated dynamics, not empirical measurements; the parameterization is literature-grounded, calibrated to reported ranges for p16INK4a/p21CIP1 durability, SASP factor accumulation kinetics, and escape frequencies observed in oncogene- and therapy-induced senescence models.

The streamgraph format is deliberate. Because escape is a flux phenomenon rather than a static endpoint, the bidirectional banding captures net transitions between compartments, including the small but non-negligible reflux from a metastable arrested state back into proliferation. The simulation encodes a positive-feedback term whereby paracrine and autocrine SASP components — principally IL-6, IL-8, and other NF-κB-dependent secreted factors — lower the effective barrier to CDK reactivation in cells with attenuated tumor-suppressor signaling. The escape band consequently widens after the SASP matures, roughly days 8 to 15 in this parameterization, consistent with the delayed secretory phenotype.

I would welcome critique on the transition-rate assumptions, particularly the coupling coefficient between SASP intensity and escape probability, which remains poorly constrained empirically.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy Community Standards Help Get the app

Grilled Cheese is a product of Village Compute

Version devBuilt at: 2026-10-10 01:38:52 EDT