explore | Grilled Cheese

Sixty of 100 capsules landed east: an observed frequency of 60%.

A uniform model predicts 50–50, but wind may make the outcomes unequal. The discrepancy tells us to collect more data, investigate the process, and possibly revise the model.

Grade 7 Math • 7.SP.7b

#Probability #DataAnalysis

Sixty of 100 capsules landed east: an observed frequency of 60%.

A uniform model predicts 50–50, but wind may make the outcomes unequal. The discrepancy tells us to collect more data, investigate the process, and possibly revise the model.

Grade 7 Math • 7.SP.7b

#Probability #DataAnalysis

Sixty of 100 capsules landed east: an observed frequency of 60%.

A uniform model predicts 50–50, but wind may make the outcomes unequal. The discrepancy tells us to collect more data, investigate the process, and possibly revise the model.

Grade 7 Math • 7.SP.7b

#Probability #DataAnalysis

✊ 30 people playing rock-paper-scissors at once need ~64,201 rounds to leave one winner. Only 4.61 of them decide anything. The rest are ties.

Japanese kids fixed this long ago: drop scissors. Rock or paper only. 4.2 rounds.

#Janken #RockPaperScissors #Probability

Four dam gates are equally likely to open. Only one is gold.

Probability = favorable outcomes ÷ total outcomes

1/4 = 25%

That calculation works because every gate has an equal chance of being selected—a uniform probability model.

Grade 7 Math • 7.SP.7a

#Probability #Grade7Math

Probabilité des streams sauvages de la semaine ! C’est pas sur mais au moins je préviens #stream #probability #coworking

Nine of ten test cars cleared the jump, so the experimental probability of success is 9/10, or 90%.

That predicts long-run frequency—not the guaranteed result of the next trial. More repeated trials generally produce a stronger estimate.

Grade 7 Math • 7.SP.6

#Probability #Grade7Math

An 80% chance of success means the rescue is likely—not guaranteed.

Since 80% = 0.8 and 0.8 is close to 1, success is likely. But only a probability of 1 means certain.

Probability describes long-run likelihood, not the guaranteed outcome of one trial.

#Grade7Math #Probability

Think of the -100p stop as an insurance premium.
USDJPY Buy at 153.48200: the 89% case pays +30p, the rare case collects the premium. 6 years of data say the policy prices out positive.
Underwriting, not gambling.
Demo · Not advice
#probability

Started writing a series of essays on #induction.

This entry intoduces the core triadic structure: Recursion -> Interruption -> Completion.

I induce that this very structure applies to any #observation.

Further entries will concern #deduction #probability and #identity.

#philosophy #logic

New selected papers of the month from Forum of #Mathematics, Pi. August's highlight topic is #Probability. Check out the #OpenAccess articles:
📚 https://cup.org/46uluwR
The editors are - Ivan Corwin, Jian Ding, Martin Hairer and Jason Miller

Catalog entry thirteen: the gauntlet hums in the key of unresolved battles. Wearing this, your shadow participates in duels you haven't chosen yet. -plate

anycrap.shop/product/quan...
#probability #tech