The Nonproliferation Review (@thenonproreview.bsky.social)

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 15, 2026, 4:38 PM

There is more OSINT data for monitoring WMD & missile proliferation than ever. Can ML help sift through it?

In our AI-WMD special issue, Yanliang Pan examines ML-enabled OSINT benefits & risks, including bias & “hyper-transparency.”

Ungated through October: doi.org/10.1080/1073...

This is the abstract for an article by Yanliang Pan in the journal The Nonproliferation Review. The article is titled "Next-Generation OSINT: Machine Learning for Tracking Nuclear and Missile Proliferation." The abstract reads: This report provides a survey of how machine learning (ML) could dramatically augment the speed, scale, and accessibility of major open-source-intelligence (OSINT) workflows for monitoring nuclear and missile proliferation. These tasks include data aggregation, anomaly detection, facial and object recognition, and satellite-imagery analysis. ML-enabled democratization of OSINT capabilities may well lower expertise barriers, enabling more robust nongovernmental analysis of weapons-of-mass-destruction threats. This could be instrumental in holding claims by intelligence agencies to account. However, without community-wide standards for ML adoption, overreliance on ML tools and unmitigated ML bias could undermine OSINT’s integrity. The erosion of data and methodological transparency could also degrade OSINT’s utility. Furthermore, hyper-transparency resulting from ML-enhanced detection could carry implications for strategic stability.

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 14, 2026, 2:40 PM

That one is just un-gated temporarily until the end of October, rather than true OA. If you login with an institutional account, it can be downloaded. But if you are having trouble obtaining an article, feel free to send a private message to our editorial office here.

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 3:59 PM

Thanks for the repost! We have a full new special issue on the AI-WMD nexus that may be of interest. All articles are either #openaccess or temporarily ungated until the end of October.

www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

This image is the table of contents for a special issue of The Nonproliferation Review covering "Artificial Intelligence and Weapons of Mass Destruction." You can read the special issue here: https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/33/1-3

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 3:35 PM

AI & nuclear policy are advancing on very different clocks.

Next in our AI-WMD issue, David M. Allison of Yale argues that “irreversible” breakthroughs could drive AI integration into nuclear operations & erode human control.

Read his new theoretical analysis: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This image is the abstract for a Viewpoint essay by David M. Allison, published in The Nonproliferation Review. The article title is: "Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear weapons: a new paradigm of irreversible transformation." The abstract reads: How should nuclear-weapons scholars and policy practitioners think about artificial intelligence (AI)? AI is advancing at an exponential pace that defies traditional policy-planning horizons. This Viewpoint contends that AI’s rapid, irreversible growth poses grave challenges for nuclear strategy. In fact, integrating AI into nuclear-weapons decision making is analogous to the leap from atomic bombs to hydrogen bombs: an inevitable and unprecedented increase in destructive power and risk. The article traces AI’s swift evolution over the past decade from the advent of large language models (LLMs) to the emergence of “machine cognition” and goal-like behaviors. As AI systems scale and replicate, their deployment in the nuclear-weapons domain is almost certain to outpace ethical and safety guardrails. This should be especially worrisome, as the strategic advantages that AI provides are offset by the risk of unpredictable and unintended actions. Rather than dismiss AI as hype based on current capabilities, urgent engagement with this new paradigm is necessary to avert nuclear catastrophe. Nuclear policy makers can no longer decide not to open Pandora’s box, but they can try to plan for what is coming.

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 7, 2026, 3:11 PM

AI-WMD discussions cannot stop at NC3 integration.

We’re featuring each article in our new special issue. First up: editor-in-chief @herzogsm.bsky.social traces AI’s implications across the full WMD life cycle, from pursuit to use or verifiable elimination.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This image provides the abstract for the Nonproliferation Review article "From Proliferation to Restraint: A Process-Based Approach to Artificial Intelligence and Weapons of Mass Destruction." The author is Stephen Herzog of Middlebury College. The abstract reads: Artificial intelligence (AI) is now a central element in many of the most pressing debates about nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Yet, the scholarship on AI and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remains highly fragmented. Much of the existing literature asks whether AI may lower knowledge barriers to dangerous activities by increasing access to expertise or accelerating sensitive research. Another strand focuses specifically on nuclear weapons and the concerns that AI integration into command-and-control architecture could jeopardize strategic stability by compressing decision time or eroding meaningful human control. A third body of work turns to monitoring and verification, where AI may offer governments and open-source intelligence analysts new avenues to assess compliance and noncompliance with arms-control, nonproliferation, and disarmament obligations. Finally, a fourth set of studies zooms in on governance institutions and whether they can keep pace with private-sector technology before AI-enabled WMD risks emerge. This introduction argues that these conversations should not be siloed. It advances a process-based approach that tracks how AI may alter the pursuit, operationalization, detection, and eventual constraint of WMD capabilities. Developments at one stage of the life cycle can also affect what happens elsewhere. This overview illustrates just how rapidly AI is reshaping the entire spectrum of WMD politics.

@olivermeier.bsky.social Oct 7, 2026, 7:47 AMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

2/ This was in response to a @thenonproreview.bsky.social article on "Upsetting the nuclear order: how the rise of nationalist populism increases nuclear dangers" by @marenvieluf.bsky.social and myself. At the time, I thought this argument may be a bit over the top. is.gd/Oc34Na

@managingtheatom.bsky.social Sep 21, 2026, 1:30 PMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

MTA Visiting Scholar @herzogsm.bsky.social has a new essay out in @thenonproreview.bsky.social about the many overlooked & overlapping ways AI is affecting the politics of nuclear, biological & chemical weapons. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

I edited a new full @thenonproreview.bsky.social special issue on this topic. Its articles substantially expand the AI–WMD literature across nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They're all now open-access or temporarily ungated.

Read the issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

@zohanaser.bsky.social Sep 15, 2026, 2:40 PMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

It was such a pleasure to contribute to this special issue – thank you to the editors for the opportunity! Check out our article revisiting the Four Faces framework in the age of AI below:

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

My new @thenonproreview.bsky.social essay argues that AI–WMD research needs to move beyond its usual focus on just NC3 integration or WMD proliferation. AI is reshaping the whole WMD landscape, and we need to study those effects across the full WMD life cycle.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 1:46 PM

@herzogsm.bsky.social @alialkis.bsky.social @zohanaser.bsky.social @sarahtzinieris.bsky.social @ghionis.bsky.social

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 1:46 PM

Big release of the NPR: our special issue on AI & WMD. All these articles are open-access or temporarily ungated. They should push the literature much further into this crucial domain of understanding how AI is reshaping politics & tech.

Read the full issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 1:52 PMReposted by @thenonproreview.bsky.social

Can a nonproliferation norm survive violations by the country that championed it?

New and #open-access in The Nonproliferation Review: Alan J. Kuperman’s “The global risks from US violation of HEU minimization: insights from norm theory”

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

1/2

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 1:52 PM

Kuperman examines the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment and AUKUS submarine plans. He argues that choosing highly enriched uranium for cost and convenience could encourage other states to follow suit, increasing nuclear proliferation and terrorism risks. 2/2

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 1:52 PM

Can a nonproliferation norm survive violations by the country that championed it?

New and #open-access in The Nonproliferation Review: Alan J. Kuperman’s “The global risks from US violation of HEU minimization: insights from norm theory”

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

1/2