The 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest level since 2002. Normally, a move of this magnitude would spell trouble for stocks. So why are equities holding up? @johnauthers.bsky.social explains 🎥

‘With the exception of a few months at the top of the oil price spike in 2008, and in the brief spasm that followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the ISM Services prices paid reading is the strongest since the series began in 1997.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Join @johnauthers.bsky.social, @timobrien.bsky.social, @nirkaissar.bsky.social, Allison Schrager, @ronbrownstein.bsky.social and @sarahgc.bsky.social on Oct. 21 for a live conversation about the forces shaping America.

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‘The latest widening took French spreads above their level from the eve of the July 2012 speech by the then-president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in which he promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Excellent from @johnauthers.bsky.social and Richard Abbey this morning on the AI-capex debt and rates dynamics that matter for *everything* right now>> The Fed’s hiking cycle could prove a red-flag moment for AI. via @opinion.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘As of Sept. 14, six groups (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, SpaceX and Microsoft) accounted for 8.4% of the overall spread risk in the US investment-grade corporate bond market. That’s more than the six largest banks.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Add supply chains only as strong as their weakest part to a deglobalizing trend in which countries aim for self-sufficiency and exploit any chokepoints at their disposal, and shocks become a feature, not a bug.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Once the Fed embarks on tightening, it generally continues for a while and yields continue to rise generally by more than a percentage point. Judging by history, we should brace for the 10-year yield to reach 6% before the Fed is done.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This is how #yen has performed on a real (taking into account that #Japanese inflation has been the lowest in the world, which would normally mean the currency should strengthen) effective basis against a broad basket of currencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social #Bloomberg

@johnauthers.bsky.social on Bessent goading markets against.
A lot can go wrong from this.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘The mania to find the most profitable investments has collided with over-hyped claims and backlash around attempts to identify good companies. That creates opportunities for those who can keep their heads.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Warsh appears to have boxed himself into a rate hike this week: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...