Stephen Herzog

@herzogsm.bsky.social

Director, Vermont Office, Center for Nonproliferation Studies | Professor of the Practice, Middlebury College | Associate, Harvard Project on Managing the Atom | nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, disarmament, technology

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 3:35 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

AI & nuclear policy are advancing on very different clocks.

Next in our AI-WMD issue, David M. Allison of Yale argues that “irreversible” breakthroughs could drive AI integration into nuclear operations & erode human control.

Read his new theoretical analysis: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This image is the abstract for a Viewpoint essay by David M. Allison, published in The Nonproliferation Review. The article title is: "Integrating artificial intelligence with nuclear weapons: a new paradigm of irreversible transformation." The abstract reads: How should nuclear-weapons scholars and policy practitioners think about artificial intelligence (AI)? AI is advancing at an exponential pace that defies traditional policy-planning horizons. This Viewpoint contends that AI’s rapid, irreversible growth poses grave challenges for nuclear strategy. In fact, integrating AI into nuclear-weapons decision making is analogous to the leap from atomic bombs to hydrogen bombs: an inevitable and unprecedented increase in destructive power and risk. The article traces AI’s swift evolution over the past decade from the advent of large language models (LLMs) to the emergence of “machine cognition” and goal-like behaviors. As AI systems scale and replicate, their deployment in the nuclear-weapons domain is almost certain to outpace ethical and safety guardrails. This should be especially worrisome, as the strategic advantages that AI provides are offset by the risk of unpredictable and unintended actions. Rather than dismiss AI as hype based on current capabilities, urgent engagement with this new paradigm is necessary to avert nuclear catastrophe. Nuclear policy makers can no longer decide not to open Pandora’s box, but they can try to plan for what is coming.

@nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 2:02 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

The nuclear paradox: Why the world wants both deterrence and disarmament
thebulletin.org/2026/10/the-...
Article in @thebulletin.org by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social, Official Visitor @jluisrodriguez.com and @herzogsm.bsky.social

@nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 2:02 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

This commentary builds on the authors' paper in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social Rethinking the deterrence-disarmament dichotomy: The complex landscape of global nuclear weapons preferences
doi.org/10.1017/S153...

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Oct 7, 2026, 3:11 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

AI-WMD discussions cannot stop at NC3 integration.

We’re featuring each article in our new special issue. First up: editor-in-chief @herzogsm.bsky.social traces AI’s implications across the full WMD life cycle, from pursuit to use or verifiable elimination.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This image provides the abstract for the Nonproliferation Review article "From Proliferation to Restraint: A Process-Based Approach to Artificial Intelligence and Weapons of Mass Destruction." The author is Stephen Herzog of Middlebury College. The abstract reads: Artificial intelligence (AI) is now a central element in many of the most pressing debates about nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Yet, the scholarship on AI and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remains highly fragmented. Much of the existing literature asks whether AI may lower knowledge barriers to dangerous activities by increasing access to expertise or accelerating sensitive research. Another strand focuses specifically on nuclear weapons and the concerns that AI integration into command-and-control architecture could jeopardize strategic stability by compressing decision time or eroding meaningful human control. A third body of work turns to monitoring and verification, where AI may offer governments and open-source intelligence analysts new avenues to assess compliance and noncompliance with arms-control, nonproliferation, and disarmament obligations. Finally, a fourth set of studies zooms in on governance institutions and whether they can keep pace with private-sector technology before AI-enabled WMD risks emerge. This introduction argues that these conversations should not be siloed. It advances a process-based approach that tracks how AI may alter the pursuit, operationalization, detection, and eventual constraint of WMD capabilities. Developments at one stage of the life cycle can also affect what happens elsewhere. This overview illustrates just how rapidly AI is reshaping the entire spectrum of WMD politics.

@thebulletin.org Oct 6, 2026, 3:18 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

A 23-country study reveals that a majority of people worldwide embraces both nuclear deterrence and disarmament.

The studies authors argue that this exposes a pragmatic flexibility that gives policymakers rare leeway for creative diplomacy.
buff.ly/o7TVzJQ

@thebulletin.org Oct 6, 2026, 9:18 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

A new study finds that 67% of US respondents support the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons which calls for nuclear abolition. But only 22% of those respondents support reducing the US nuclear arsenal.

How to square the difference?
buff.ly/o7TVzJQ

@francoisdm.bsky.social Oct 6, 2026, 1:22 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

Is public opinion on nuclear weapons hypocritical—or just pragmatic?

A new study by Lauren Sukin @laurensukin.bsky.social, Luis Rodriguez @jluisrodriguez.com, and Stephen Herzog @herzogsm.bsky.social surveyed 27,000+ people across 24 countries—and uncovered a fascinating global paradox. 🧵👇

A graphic showing four fighter jets leaving contrails, a large bomb, and a white dove carrying an olive branch. (Illustration by François Diaz-Maurin; source images via canva.com)

@managingtheatom.bsky.social Sep 21, 2026, 1:30 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

MTA Visiting Scholar @herzogsm.bsky.social has a new essay out in @thenonproreview.bsky.social about the many overlooked & overlapping ways AI is affecting the politics of nuclear, biological & chemical weapons. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

I edited a new full @thenonproreview.bsky.social special issue on this topic. Its articles substantially expand the AI–WMD literature across nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. They're all now open-access or temporarily ungated.

Read the issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

My new @thenonproreview.bsky.social essay argues that AI–WMD research needs to move beyond its usual focus on just NC3 integration or WMD proliferation. AI is reshaping the whole WMD landscape, and we need to study those effects across the full WMD life cycle.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@drjlhazelton.bsky.social Sep 16, 2026, 11:05 AMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

Belfer friends, a memorial for Susan Lynch. Details below. @mitpress.bsky.social @pearson-edits.bsky.social @sannecjv.bsky.social

@zohanaser.bsky.social Sep 15, 2026, 2:40 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

It was such a pleasure to contribute to this special issue – thank you to the editors for the opportunity! Check out our article revisiting the Four Faces framework in the age of AI below:

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PM

Read the issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

@herzogsm.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 4:41 PM

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 14, 2026, 1:46 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

Big release of the NPR: our special issue on AI & WMD. All these articles are open-access or temporarily ungated. They should push the literature much further into this crucial domain of understanding how AI is reshaping politics & tech.

Read the full issue here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/rnpr20/3...

@thenonproreview.bsky.social Sep 8, 2026, 1:52 PMReposted by @herzogsm.bsky.social

Can a nonproliferation norm survive violations by the country that championed it?

New and #open-access in The Nonproliferation Review: Alan J. Kuperman’s “The global risks from US violation of HEU minimization: insights from norm theory”

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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