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Jacob Montgomery

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

1.2k Following3.8k Followers

Political (Data) Scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. Data science, social media, American politics, and grumpy Bayesian. All opinions my own.

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@marcelorinesi.bsky.socialOct 12, 2026, 12:07 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

By @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social @umariqbal.bsky.social @haofeixu.bsky.social Worth keeping in mind & perhaps redoing periodically. If AI answers are going to be an important component of our collective information infrastructure we should have empirical measures of their performance "in the wild."

@polanalysis.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 5:29 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

Letter: Do AI models read ideology from faces? Jeon, Lee, @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social & @calvinklai.bsky.social varied only the face in neutral campaign ads. All three models rated women more liberal than men, beyond survey gaps. Racial effects varied by model.
doi.org/10.1017/pan.2026.10038

Flowchart of the study design in four steps, left to right. 1: A Facebook-style campaign ad showing an AI-generated portrait of a smiling woman, with neutral text asking for an endorsement in exchange for a window sticker. 2: A prompt asking the model to write a caption for the candidate and pick a political view from very conservative to very liberal. 3: The model’s caption, a campaign message about a brighter future that says the candidate leans liberal. 4: A bar chart of ideology labels across five categories, from very conservative to very liberal, with an arrow pointing to the liberal bar.
@socialmedialab.caOct 9, 2026, 1:30 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

Here's a plan for the future: If Dems regain power, they shouldn’t just undo Trump’s EOs. They shld fix the structural weaknesses that let presidents dismantle federal programs, withhold approved funds, politicize the civil service, weaken watchdogs, & expand exec. power w/few immediate consequences

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 9:24 PM

New website is up!

jacobmontgomery.com

Pretty much vibe coded it, and it was so much more fun to build than anything I've built before.

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 9:15 PM

Yeah this is what I wanted. But now the Cook report wants to charge me for access to the PVI.....

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 9:08 PM

Yeah but i want the polls and tehy want $100. What am I made of gold?

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 8:58 PM

I found this www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 8:54 PM

I really miss 538. Does anyone have a line on a free website that tracks senate polling? Everything I have found so far charges for access.

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 12:50 PM

The last unicorn terrified me when I was a kid.

Photo, no description
@noranewcombe.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 2:44 PMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

Done without Congressional approval and with no one in charge who is congressionally confirmed

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 2:39 PM

The only reason that university finances aren’t in complete shambles are because of key court wins on grant cuts and immigration rules. But most universities couldn’t even be bothered join those suits or celebrate the results.

@aselbst.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 2:27 PMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

They’re making the same mistake journalists have. It’s not partisan to speak out and defend your institutions against threats, even if those threats are partisan in nature. If you’re in university leadership, doing so should be considered part of your job, not something to avoid.

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 2:36 PM

Universities have been going for the “insiders strategy” of trying to lobby quietly without making public waves. Counterfactuals are hard, but I would say the strategy has been a complete failure.

@mcopelov.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 6:08 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

~Approximately no one in the general public knows because the leaders of the R1 research universities - whose budgets, programs, & personnel are entirely or significantly dependent on federal funding - have been totally absent from the public square in explaining & collectively protesting this.

@kevinmkruse.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 11:19 PMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

When they get back in power, Democrats need to go all-in on higher education. We need a campaign of reinvestment in public universities across the country that makes the Morrill Land-Grant Act look like nothing by comparison *and* a GI Bill of Rights-style program of tuition grants.

NThe New Republic@newrepublic.comSep 27, 2026, 3:34 PM

Trump is banning students majoring in degrees that don’t make enough money from taking out college loans. Degrees for social work, art, religious studies, teaching aides, and music will be hit the hardest. trib.al/kQdKbY1

trib.alTrump Moves to Cut Off Student Loans for Tons of DegreesUnder a new rule, if your degree doesn’t make enough money, you won’t be able to get a student loan.
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@carlbergstrom.comSep 28, 2026, 11:29 PMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

"I believe that science derives its authority from something more than mastering the pipeline from data generation to publication. Rather, it comes from interactions within a community of people trained to interrogate evidence and answer for the conclusions they draw from it."

@tompepinsky.comSep 16, 2026, 1:41 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

the hardest thing for the politician-bureaucrats to understand -- but which NSF staff *absolutely do* understand and always have -- is that you actually make scientific progress by giving young people money and promising not to bother them

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 11:54 AM

I’m so glad this rule was halted, and so angry at the huge waste of time and stress dealing with has been for so many on campus www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/u...

@kjhealy.coSep 15, 2026, 11:00 AMReposted by @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social

I pretend to teach; you pretend to learn; everyone gets an A.

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 9:59 PM

People who keep saying science is broken sure do seem to use a lot of the outputs of science all day every day.

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