@timbartik.bsky.social
Senior Economist at Upjohn Institute, fan of "place-based policies" (or at least some of them!). https://www.upjohn.org/about/upjohn-team/staff/timothy-j-bartik
@timbartik.bsky.socialWe plan on following this report by extending analysis to every county in all 50 states, and will make that database publicly available sometime in 2027, hopefully in first half of year.
@timbartik.bsky.socialThe report is based on looking at all local labor markets in 5 states: California, Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. The report also includes extensive research reviews of literature on cost-effectiveness of different economic development policies.
@timbartik.bsky.social(3) I was surprised that with more cost-effective services, along with targeting and housing reforms, economic development policies in long-run might have fiscal benefits exceeding costs. This is important, given current fiscal stresses facing state and local governments.
@timbartik.bsky.social(2) Given current magnitude of incentives, although fiscal cost is significant, there is no way they can significantly increase per capita incomes unless cost-effectiveness can be improved -- the math just doesn't work.
@timbartik.bsky.socialWhat surprised me most: (1) Key to making incentives more effective is lowering cost per job induced, by moving to customized services. Targeting and housing supply reforms help to lesser extent, unless targeting is quite tight.
@timbartik.bsky.socialReserach highlight and link to full report is here: www.upjohn.org/research-hig...
@timbartik.bsky.socialMy report on how states can improve incentives released today. Summary: research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcont...
Key point: Untargeted cash incentives only have modest returns & have large fiscal costs. Reforms (customized services, targeting, more elastic housing) can increase benefits at least 6x
@davidfrenchjag.bsky.socialReposted by @timbartik.bsky.social"How do we know what courage is? When we see a man risk himself to care for another person, that’s courage. The legal judgment may be uncertain, but the moral verdict is already in. On the most traumatic night in a young woman’s life, a good man could not be found." www.nytimes.com/2026/10/11/o...
@gillenmartin.bsky.socialReposted by @timbartik.bsky.socialI reviewed @rogerberkowitz.bsky.social's "A World We Share: Hannah Arendt and the Power of Friendship in a Broken World" for the @washingtonmonthly.bsky.social
@upjohninstitute.bsky.socialReposted by @timbartik.bsky.socialThe research team includes @timbartik.bsky.social, Gerrit Anderson, Brian Asquith, @kathleenbolter.bsky.social, Kyle Huisman, Iryna Lendel, Jeremy Morris, and Sevrin Williams. The report is sponsored by the nonprofit RMI @rockymtninst.bsky.social.
@upjohninstitute.bsky.socialReposted by @timbartik.bsky.socialBusiness incentives go a lot further when paired with workforce training.
A new Upjohn Institute report finds targeted training could generate $5.24 in benefits for every $1 invested. Helping local workers land the jobs being created pays off.
Read more: https://bit.ly/4h5hbN9
@timbartik.bsky.socialFindings come from regional model that I have developed to examine benefits vs. costs of incentives. The model uses consensus estimates on how sensitive business location decision are to incentives, as well as consensus estimates of economic responses. More details in report & its references.
@timbartik.bsky.socialWhy such a high benefit-cost ratio? (1) training increases the proportion of induced jobs that go to local residents. (2) training induces added jobs at a lower cost per induced job than is true of property tax abatements.
@timbartik.bsky.socialMy report (w/ 2 @upjohninstitute.bsky.social colleagues) on the benefits & costs of adding training to business tax incentives, in the City of Chattanooga, is being released today: research.upjohn.org/up_technical...
Bottom-line: adding training has benefit-cost ratio of over 25 to 1.
@timbartik.bsky.socialIn contrast, I am not aware of rigorous evidence on the effectiveness of Norway regional development programs, as it is difficult to find a good counterfactual comparison group for distressed regions.
@timbartik.bsky.socialWhile I am hardly an expert on European place-based policies, my understanding is that is some evidence that geographically-differentiated payroll taxes in Norway make some difference to local job growth, although the cost per job may be high. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
@timbartik.bsky.socialInteresting article. I would argue that in addition to retraining policies, place-based policies would help us adjust to economic changes. My understanding is that Norway, for example, has both regionally-differentiated payroll taxes and some regional adjustment programs.
