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@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgThe October runs for dynamical El NiƱo models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:
@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgThis year's El NiƱo continues its climb into uncharted waters; NiƱo3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El NiƱo event on record. September monthly NiƱo3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).
@rarohde.bsky.socialReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgTemperatures in the Central Pacific El NiƱo region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El NiƱo at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.
@shelwinkleywx.bsky.socialReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgWith three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth. Currently, the list stands as: #1: 2024 #2: 2023 #3: 2025 #4: 2016 #5: 2020
@berkeleyearth.orgHappening in just under 30minutesā¦still time to register via the link below. See you there!
@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgI have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El NiƱo, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The NiƱo3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
@rarohde.bsky.socialReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgBerkeley Earth will be holding our monthly climate briefing on Thursday.
Safe to say that there is a lot going on with weather and climate the moment.
8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET
It is geared towards the media, but anyone is welcome.
@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgThis year's El NiƱo event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic NiƱo Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El NiƱo. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
@berkeleyearth.orgBerkeley Earth will be hosting our next Monthly Press Briefing on Thursday 9/24 at 8amPDT/5pmCET.
August was eventful; we're extending this month's briefing to a *full hour* to accommodate the full scope of our August 2026 update, with live Q&A to follow.
š to register: tinyurl.com/mr33hhk4
@rarohde.bsky.socialReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgThis year produced the hottest summer in the history of modern France. Some of that record is down to the specific weather patterns that occurred this year, but global warming deserves a large share of the credit for generally making French summers hotter over time.
@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgAfter a nearly month-long plateau Nino3.4 region temperatures (ONI) are on their way back up. We've now surpassed 1982/1983 and are only behind 2015/2016 in terms of maximum daily values. And its only early September.
@berkeleyearth.orgObservations drawn from BEST-HR, along with downscaled, bias-corrected warming projections drawn from our new climate model synthesis product, are now available for more than 8,000 global cities via our new climate platform Synthesis.
Access is free with registration: synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
@berkeleyearth.orgAccess to the complete suite of BEST-HR derived products, including TMAX/TMIN, land and ocean subsets, and city-level gridded data, can be requested here: tinyurl.com/4u559w5k
For those currently using BEST-HR, formal citation details are (finally) available in the preprint link above.
@berkeleyearth.orgOur high-res product includes uncertainty ensembles that allow for propagation of errors into derived metrics, offering a globally complete, monthly resolved temperature product suitable for applications ranging from global trend analysis to regional climate impact assessments.
@berkeleyearth.orgNews we could not be more excited to share: the description paper of our high-resolution dataset is now available for review and comment at ESSD.
The record provides global coverage at 0.25Ā° resolution, built from 58,311 weather stations extending back to 1750.
Pre-print: tinyurl.com/9dw7jbnf
@zekehausfather.comReposted by @berkeleyearth.orgThe emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
@berkeleyearth.orgāHuman emissions are adding a permanent El NiƱo worth of heat to the climate system each decade.ā
Berkeley Earth's @zekehausfather.com spoke with @bennollweather.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com about the future preview coming via this year's record-setting El NiƱo.
Gift link: wapo.st/4htwiBY
