To address concerns about his age and give centrist voters permission to support the left, @lulaoficialbluesky.bsky.social should commit to serving only one more term and naming a successor, while also taking a stronger line on public safety, @muggah.bsky.social advises. bit.ly/4hKtkHw

Violent crime has also dominated the list of voter concerns in election polls, prompting candidates to pledge tougher security measures. As I told @reuters.com, there’s plenty of political mileage in promising tougher punishment.
@igarapeorg.bsky.social

www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Environmental #crime is among the world’s most lucrative illicit markets, but it’s also under-studied. Estimates suggest it generates upwards $280 billion a year in profits with social costs of between $1-2 trillion a year. Our latest with @mongabay.com

news.mongabay.com/2026/09/to-t...

la plus grande partie de l’Histoire, la guerre est restée circonscrite par la géographie. La cyberguerre a fait voler ce frontière en éclat. L'avènement de l'IA a fait croître les cyber-risques de manière exponentielle. Mon article avex @letemps.ch

www.letemps.ch/opinions/deb...

Seductive as it may be, Bukeleism is unlikely to work in Brazil. The #PCC and the #CV are far more sophisticated than El Savador’s extortionists and their (transnational) businesses much harder to track and disrupt. Spoke to @economist.com.

www.economist.com/the-americas...

As conditions have worsened, #Haiti’s brigades and gangs have joined an arms race. Spoke at length to the #washingtonpost about what’s at stake.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

There’s a rising perception that U.S. security policy toward Brazil has become entangled in politics. I told the #nytimes it falls short of a rupture but is generating heightened mistrust.

www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/w...

9/ @muggah.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...

The Iran war has narrowed the political space for climate negotiations. But geopolitical volatility need not derail the energy transition, argue Igarapé Institutes' @muggah.bsky.social, @uspoficial.bsky.social’s Carlos Nobre, and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social’s Johan Rockström. bit.ly/4r75VEJ

The Canada–US relationship has entered its most serious confrontation in generations. The likeliest outcome through the end of the year remains a harsher economic conflict rather than a security crisis. #secdev

flashnote.secdev.com/p/canada-and...

How Trump's foreign policy is changing the world order.

I told #USAToday that Trump is extracting more from American power today while giving other countries reasons to depend on it less tomorrow.

www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered one of its most dangerous phases since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Several trends are now converging. Our latest analysis at #SecDev considers escalatory dynamics in Ukraine and more widely across Europe.

flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...

There are good reasons to be skeptical about how much impact #Meta’s latest $17b settlement will have on the tech giant. The bigger story is not the money. It’s that governments are beginning to regulate how social media platforms are actually built.

theconversation.com/the-product-...

Washington has long eyed #Brazil’s critical minerals. But as US-Brazil diplomatic relations wobble over trade and political disputes, the Serra Verde offtake arrangement weakens Brasília’s negotiating power. Spoke to #FT about the situation.

www.ft.com/content/a404...

While the Bukele model promises quick wins through heavy policing and mass incarceration, #CostaRica (like Brazil, Colombia, etc) faces a different challenge than #ElSalvador, with transnational criminal organizations now deeply embedded in the country. Spoke to #WSJ.

www.wsj.com/world/americ...