@econstevem.bsky.social
Deputy Director for Macroeconomic Modelling and Forecasting at NIESR. Enjoy watching cricket and playing the piano. Using Bluesky in a personal capacity.
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social#WeekendReading 🔖The pledge to end the triple lock in 2030 goes against the Govt's aim of rebuilding credibility, and adding to the state pension bill
In this #blog ahead of the #Budget2026 Ben Caswell outlines what's wrong with the PM proposal around the triple lock ⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialShould the Bank of England stop paying interest on commercial bank reserves?
It sounds like a quick fix for the public purse, but in our latest #Budget2026 explainer, just published, @econstevem.bsky.social explains why changing course could do more harm than good👇
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialThe pledge to end the triple lock in 2030 goes against the Govt's aim of rebuilding credibility, also adding significantly to the state pension bill
In the 2nd of our #Budget2026 explainers Ben Caswell outlines what's wrong with the PM proposal around the triple lock ⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialBeyond the Bubble: The #Budget Balancing Act
Join NIESR & @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social for an exclusive webinar exploring the difficult choices at the heart of this year's Budget, with a great panel: Gideon Skinner, David Aikman, Andy Haldane.
Sign up here⤵️
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialThe Government should be saving more of these risky receipts. This would make its tax base more secure. It would ensure it covers future ageing pressures and weathers the next recession without the need for painful cutbacks or sharp tax increases.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialStripping out the excess corporation tax, the parts that look riskiest, the Government plans to run larger deficits, rising from €12 billion in 2026 to €20 billion in 2030.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialThe Government continues to use high-risk receipts to fund permanent tax and spending measures. It plans to spend about six-in-seven euros of all corporation tax revenues it takes in. Most of it is for current spending.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialSpending increases net of tax measures have been running at a blistering pace. A sustainable speed limit of 5% was set in 2021. But governments have since budgeted for 6%, before actually delivering about 10%, double the speed limit. Today’s figures suggest almost 9% in 2026.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialThe Fiscal Council has just published its Flash Release on Budget 2027. Here are the key takeaways: Budget 2027 puts the public finances on a worse trajectory by repeatedly breaking established spending limits and increasingly relying on high-risk corporation tax.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social4/4 The key takeaway is that overspends continue and strong revenues are offsetting them for now. But the Government is relying heavily on risky corporation tax. The White Paper 2026 surplus is €2.3 billion smaller than forecast in March, and the Budget will reduce it further.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social3/4 The Department of Health is heading for its second-largest overspend outside of the pandemic. Overruns have risen from €390 million in July to €650 million in August, and €730 million in September.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social2/4 Taxes continue to grow strongly. Corporation tax is €4.4 billion ahead of last year’s end-September outturn. The Department of Finance sees this as a timing effect that may unwind, so it has barely revised its 2026 tax forecasts since April. Spending is rising quickly too.
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social1/4 Two releases came out today. The “White Paper” gives an updated glimpse of the fiscal situation before next Tuesday’s Budget package, but is thin on spending detail. We also have updated tax and spending numbers to September.
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialOur latest #TermPremia Tracker has just been published⚡️
UK gilts hit their highest level in 19 years, with the 10-year yield rising 56 basis points to 5.43%. Around two-thirds of this increase came from higher interest rate expectations
Read the analysis in full here⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialWe just published the first of our #Budget2026 explainers 💼💬
Senior Economist Peter Dixon examines the growing tension between fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Read the full blog for a deep dive into the macroeconomic balancing act facing policymakers⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social#WeekendWatching 📺 Did you miss earlier in the week the 2026 Dow Lecture with MPC member Alan Taylor?
No worries, you can watch it back here ⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.social#WeekendReading 🔖 The first of our #Budget2026 explainers 💼
Senior Economist Peter Dixon sheds light on the growing tension between fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Here in full⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialCan economic policy be effective if the underlying data is flawed?📊
The latest CfM-NIESR survey has just been published, gathering expert views from leading economists on the usefulness and reliability of ONS statistics.
Read here what the panel had to say ⤵️
@niesrorg.bsky.socialReposted by @econstevem.bsky.socialWith the pensions' #triplelock back in the news headlines, it is well worth reading what our Senior Economist Ben Caswell has been proposing to 'solve the issue' - A 'Living Standard' Lock 🔒
Read more here ⤵️