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The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Founded by @ianbremmer.com. Putting politics first for 25 years.
@eurasiagroup.netAs Israelis head to the polls later this month, Netanyahu's track record in response to the October 7 attacks will be top of mind.
@ianbremmer.com reflects on the events since the attacks and what it means for Netanyahu’s political future:
@eurasiagroup.netOur expert @mijrahman.bsky.social says the significance of France’s upcoming election can be likened to the UK’s Brexit referendum in 2016.
It’s not just a debt crisis or bond-market crisis. Investors are worrying about an existential political and constitutional crisis.
@eurasiagroup.netPer our #TopRisks2026, the hollowing out of Europe's political center has been a decade in the making.
But the collapse of the center is particularly striking in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
@eurasiagroup.netJapanese firms, which were already planning to reduce their footprint in China, are considering withdrawing from the market more urgently since China-Japan ties went into a tailspin. Our expert Jeremy Chan says Japanese firms and their employees increasingly feel unwelcome and unsafe in China.
@eurasiagroup.netWill Hungarian Prime Minister Magyar go after his predecessor Viktor Orbán? As the corruption scandals and cases continue to pile up, our expert Orsolya Ráczová thinks a probe into Orbán’s personal responsibility is inevitable.
@eurasiagroup.netA Bolsonaro win = closer US ties, market optimism, and likely a pardon for Jair.
A Lula win = the status quo with Washington and slower fiscal reform.
Either way, Brazil's democracy faces real headwinds. @ianbremmer.com’s latest for @gzeromedia.com:
@eurasiagroup.net“It’s a standoff,” says our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social about negotiations between the US and Iran. The violence in the Strait of Hormuz speaks to the position that both sides are in: Neither is looking to aggressively escalate the conflict, but both want to control the waterway.
@eurasiagroup.netIs the European far-right becoming mainstream?
France’s RN party gained ground in Sunday’s Senate election, and Germany’s AfD party is close to governing a German state.
Here’s a look at how the share of votes in Europe has shifted over time ⬇️
@eurasiagroup.netSave the date: We’re excited to partner with RBC for the next #USCanadaSummit on March 31, 2027.
At the 2027 summit, business leaders, policymakers, and experts from both countries will convene to understand the risks and opportunities for trade, tariffs, energy, defense, and supply chains.
@eurasiagroup.netOur expert Dan Wang expects the US-China trade truce to be extended again next year, as China has a preference for external stability before the Communist Party’s 21st Congress. The outlook for AI is less optimistic, as Beijing still sees the US approach as trying to constrain China’s development.
@eurasiagroup.netOur expert Dan Wang doesn’t expect the upcoming US midterm election results to alter the US-China relationship. The two-month truce extension guarantees bilateral stability through 2026, and it’s anticipated the truce will be extended again after that period.
@eurasiagroup.netCanada is experiencing a reversion to the mean in its relationship w/ the US, says our Chairman @gmbutts.bsky.social.
US-CA relations post-1988 Free Trade Agreement are somewhat of an anomaly and PM Carney is prioritizing countries other than the US to expand Canada's economic and security options.
@eurasiagroup.net“US allies and partners do not want to see a breakthrough in US-China relations that harms their national interests,” says our expert Jeremy Chan about the Trump-Xi meeting. “But they also want to guard against a breakdown in US-China ties that raises the risk of conflict in the region.” @CNBC
@eurasiagroup.netTariffs are the main issue on the agenda for tomorrow’s Trump-Xi summit.
Our expert Dan Wang says that China has the upper hand going into the talks, and Xi wouldn't attend if there were no deliverables on tariffs or a trade truce.
@eurasiagroup.netLive from #UNGA: How can a human-centered approach to AI help address some of society’s most pressing challenges?
Ian Bremmer, Elizabeth Cousens (United Nations Foundation), and Brad Smith (Microsoft) will discuss Wednesday at 5:15 pm ET, moderated by Rachel Siegel (CNN Business).
@eurasiagroup.netThe European Union’s offer of associate membership to Canada is a first – but it ties into a broader strategy. Our expert Graeme Thompson explains how this is another example of how Canada reducing its reliance on the US:
@eurasiagroup.netThe p(doom) crowd would be better served by warning of the many real threats AI poses, from bioweapons to cybersecurity, rather than claiming that the apocalypse is around the corner.
@ianbremmer.com explains in his latest for @gzeromedia.com
https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/ai-doom
@eurasiagroup.netA research team in California discovered what could be a potent cyberweapon - a tool built with AI that could breach millions of WeChat accounts in hours. Our expert Xiaomeng Lu says that for WeChat’s parent company, Tencent, the hack is likely to draw intense scrutiny from Chinese regulators.
@eurasiagroup.netEven if Russia and Ukraine agreed to a cease-fire today, global refining capacities wouldn’t return immediately, as damaged facilities take time to repair. In order for a détente to have an effect on diesel prices, our expert @gbrew24.bsky.social says it would likely need to last several weeks.
@eurasiagroup.netRead more about the water weapon:
