@mijrahman.bsky.social
Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth
@mijrahman.bsky.socialEuropean capitals should now stop talking and instead seize Russian assets in Euroclear to expedite funding to Ukraine Lots of thinking has been done on how to overcome Belgium's opposition. Those plans should now be put in place
@henryjfoy.ft.comReposted by @mijrahman.bsky.socialđź’Ą The Trump administration has threatened European capitals that it could stop paid-for weapons shipments to Ukraine if Kyiv does not halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, officials told @christopherjm.ft.com and me
@eurasiagroup.netReposted by @mijrahman.bsky.socialOur expert @mijrahman.bsky.social says the significance of France’s upcoming election can be likened to the UK’s Brexit referendum in 2016.
It’s not just a debt crisis or bond-market crisis. Investors are worrying about an existential political and constitutional crisis.
@mijrahman.bsky.socialWas great to join the World Tonight on BBC Radio 4 to discuss what's happening in France. I'm at the top. Do give it a listen!
@mijrahman.bsky.socialI tell the FT: “The EU wants a strategic sense of direction.” He adds that senior figures in Brussels are “all talking about” the British prime minister’s overtures. “There’s no plan, no detail but he has created the political space to have a conversation.”
@mijrahman.bsky.socialMĂ©lenchon and other LFI leaders initially justified the student violence and accused police of brutal over-reaction. They appeared to take fright yesterday and said that they only supported peaceful protest. ENDS
@mijrahman.bsky.socialSeveral LFI politicians have turned up at the protests, including the mayor of Saint Denis in the NW Paris suburbs, Bally Bagayoko. A recent deep-dive poll for Le Monde found that 40% of 18-23 year old supported MĂ©lenchon in the 1st round of the Presidential election on 18 April. 6/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialThe Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said yesterday that the protests were originally legitimate but have been manipulated by far left groups – including Mélenchon’s LFI - and have degenerated into “urban violence”. 5/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialStudent complaints range from overcrowded classes, to global warming, to long queues for their subsidised 1 euro lunches, to the possibility of a Far Right President next May. Such a cocktail of specific and existential issues makes the protests difficult to contain. 4/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialThe government hopes that the weekend will create a natural firebreak and that the 15-18 year olds throwing missiles and burning dustbins - and in a few cases buildings – will go back to their normal weekend activities. 3/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialStudent protests in France come and go but the memory of May 1968 – which almost brought down the government - is never far away. The education minister Edouard Geffray will meet student and parents leaders today to try to halt the movement which began in the Paris suburbs last month. 2/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialThe violent school protests which closed 900 (one in four) lycées and led to 2,000 arrests on Thursday have invaded the French presidential campaign. The high-school students say their anger is justified. The government claims manipulation by the Far Left, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI 1/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialMain take-away? Comments writing off the “safe” Philippe were premature but he is still struggling to generate real enthusiasm in a national mood dominated by anger and rejection of the status quo. ENDS
@mijrahman.bsky.socialThe Ifop-Fiducial poll still shows Marine Le Pen well ahead of other contenders but her lead over Philippe shrinks to 12 points if Attal falls out. This is the first time in more than a month that any reputable poll has shown Philippe above 20%. 3/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialRecent polls by Harris and YouGov showed Mélenchon defeating Philippe and snatching 2nd place in Round 2 whatever the line-up of candidates in Round 1. The Ifop-Fiducial poll puts Philippe ahead of Mélenchon in all cases – even if his centrist rival Gabriel Attal stays in the race. 2/
@mijrahman.bsky.socialA new French presidential poll today calms fears of an “all extremes” run-off in May between Far Right and Far Left. An Ifop poll shows Centrist former PM Edouard Philippe 5 points ahead of radical Left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the “race for second place” in the 1st round on 18 April. 1/
@mijrahman.bsky.social@mijrahman.bsky.socialNow the UK will be fully engaged in a rejoin debate I'm reposting my piece from a few months ago It's important to recognise that the EU the UK left in 2016 no longer exists. This isn't an argument against rejoin. But the changes the EU has gone through need to be discussed in any rejoin debate
@mijrahman.bsky.social@andyburnham.bsky.social knows the British public is way ahead of UK politicians on Brexit and so is prepared to make the argument
He doesn't know how far he'll ultimately be able to go but is opening up political space in the EU for a serious conversation
@mijrahman.bsky.socialDon't believe the Europeans when they say the UK is no longer interesting, a priority etc etc
Every senior EU official I've met today in Brussels has spent 20 mins talking about @andyburnham.bsky.social speech. The EU is paying attention and interested - even if it pretends otherwise
