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@jacobnyrup.bsky.social

1.1k Following2.9k Followers

I (try to) advance our knowledge on the politics of dictatorships, political elites, comparative politics, and ๐Ÿ’ต๐Ÿ  as Professor of Political Science at University of Oslo. I also collect loads of data on governments: https://whogov.net/.

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@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 9:03 AM

Trump and his oligarchs see Russia as a model to emulate: a regime with no constraints on the leader, limitless opportunities for corruption, fully controlled media, and the freedom to persecute the opposition with impunity. No wonder he sides with Putin and not the free world.

@mrsbettybowers.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 4:54 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Let me see if I understand this . . . 1. The U.S. is at war with Iran. 2. Russia is helping Iran in that war. 3. The U.S. is now giving Russia money that it can use to help Iran destroy U.S. bases and kill U.S. troops. Donald is smart & patriotic like that.

CMark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 4:18 PM

The first Russian diesel cargo heading for the US left St Petersburg on September 22, two weeks *before* Trump announced the deal with Putin, Windward reports. The Greek-flagged tanker Minerva Zen carrying 275,000 barrels of diesel/gasoil is due at the US East Coast around 11โ€“12 October.

Map of tankerโ€™s route
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@kateinkharkiv.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 3:32 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Thank you all for your support. This situation is heartbreaking for Ukrainians because every cent russia makes on diesel funds this war. Over here, that money isn't just an abstract concept, it causes devastating damage: more destroyed towns, a harder winter, and very real loss of life.

@jakemgrumbach.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 4:54 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment.

www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,โ€ฆ
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@darthputinkgb.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 9:05 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Donald has lifted sanctions on Russian diesel. We will use the money to help Iran. Who are fighting the USA. Donald is paying us to help kill American soldiers.

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 11:24 PM

Yeah, though it is not only those two. There seems to be a double digit number of references with mistakes or hallucinations. Guess it is questionable whether the person actually engaged with the work

@donmoyn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 7:46 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Selling out Ukraine to side with Russia in order to marginally reduce the negative impacts of his dumb war with Iran

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:58 PM

Haha, I wish that was the case. Maybe they also thought that Ellen-Edward is so far away in Australia that no one would actually know whether he changed name

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 12:06 PM

Noticed that I was cited in a new publication today... for a paper with @chknutsen.bsky.social we have never written. I start shuffling through the references, and it turns out that @edwardgoldring.bsky.social has changed name to Ellen!

Friends, don't do this. People in your field will notice.

@leonardocarella.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:33 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britainโ€™s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 12:50 PM

@argohdes.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 11:55 AMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

This image says more than a 1000 words. Abysmal to see countries bowing to US pressure to withdraw from sponsoring a conference on disinformation.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

@atrupar.comOct 8, 2026, 3:23 AMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Itโ€™s really remarkable to me that 10 years into this people feel compelled to โ€œclarifyโ€ Trumpโ€™s homicidal and often genocidal fantasies. It is deranged for the president to daydream about American cities in states he hates getting blown up. Full stop.

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@peterla.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 7:29 AMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

New WP with brilliant co-author @jacobnyrup.bsky.social! Which governments are most representative? We match the backgrounds of tens of thousands of cabinet ministers to population data in 136 countries (1991-2021) and measure the representation gap on gender, age, education, class and geography.

World map shading each country by the average gap between its cabinet and its population on gender, age, education, class and capital origin, 2001โ€“2021. Gaps are smallest in Scandinavia, followed by North America, Australia, and much of Western Europe. They are largest in Asia and (much of) Africa.
@veterandrusianer.dkOct 6, 2026, 2:52 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

Der kan man bare se.

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 7:26 PM

But I fear that Trump will be even more erratic and aggressive, when he faces more roadblocks and cannot govern as unhindered anymore, making him more dangerous. Anyway, these are just some thoughts. I'm by no means an expert on American politics, so would be curious if there is something I missed?

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 7:26 PM

in funding bills. I guess there will also be a huge psychological effect, empowering Democrats and allowing Republicans to put greater distance between themselves and Trump. This will be important going into 2028 and the fight to preserve American democracy.

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 7:26 PM

Thus, it seems to me the most important consequence would be that Democrats can block Trumps nominees to cabinet, supreme court, and so on, forcing him to compromise or leave positions open. Moreover, Congress can open investigations and perform oversight. Guess they also have more bargaining power

@jacobnyrup.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 7:26 PM

I am wondering what the most important consequences would be if the Democrats manage to take both the House and the Senate? Trump isn't really having a legislative agenda anyway, not much being passed, preferring to use executive orders. And he would be able to veto bills coming from congress.

@donmoyn.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 3:28 PMReposted by @jacobnyrup.bsky.social

As a reminder, Trump is already on National Park passes, and people have been told they will not be admitted if the image is vandalized. At some point, this is not so much branding government services as imposing the images of a personalist regime.

national park pass featuring trump
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