Yes because of the rachet...now they will in the long run match average wage growth. My point is they can't fall below average wage growth. You are right I mean in the long-run not in any given year.

The adjusted mechanism still guarantees as a min whatever an earnings link from the start of introduction of the policy would have given (currently eg a peg of 30% of earnings). So the earnings ratio will only fall in your scenario if that period followed one in which pensions had outpaced wages.

Overall part of the challenge of moving off the triple lock was that it saves a lot more in the long-run than short-run, meaning the political incentives to address it are weaker than the importance of fixing it. That's why I think Burnham can fairly claim credit for tackling the long-term today.

So this is an important decision for the public finances because it removes a source of huge uncertainty and long-run cost. It protects pensioners significantly who will continue to see rises of at least the same as workers. It looks unlikely to pay for social care on its own.

The volatility of triple lock meant forecasts of costs were often wrong&so estimates of the savings are also uncertain. However, based on typical variation in the economy, TL tends to increase the pension bill by around £5 billion annually after five years, but by £15 billion after ten years.

That's because average earnings didn't keep up with the 2.5% minimum for much of this period. Hopefully that won't happen again!

The chart shows that keeping the 2.5% minimum is an important choice. If the new mechanism had been in place since 2012 it would have left the State Pension 4.5 per cent higher than just a link to earnings, but 5.9 per cent lower than it is with triple lock.

The triple lock announcement today is essentially a shift to a long-run link to earnings. But with a minimum of inflation or 2.5% in any given year. Most importantly that removes the permanent ratchet above earnings.

The triple lock on the State Pension will be 'adjusted' from April 2030. What might that mean for the value of the State Pension? In this chart we show how the State Pension would have increased under various uprating measures, including the 'smoothed' triple lock announced by the PM today.

Though this is more about the absence of a made up decline in leave than more leave actually being taken.

Important analysis out today re new productivity data. UK workers still less productive than French ones, but this gap didn't emerge post financial crisis. Hours worked more important than we realised for boosting UK growth. &OBR no longer look optimistic relative to post financial crisis trends.

Some tough news for John Healey this morning: August borrowing came in at £18.3bn – that’s up from £15.4bn a year ago and the second highest August on record. This shows why the Chancellor faces a tricky balancing act ahead for the Budget. Short thread…🧵

CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow.

DWP has just published a flurry of new data on how PIP and UC-Health assessments are carried out (face-to-face or via phone, video or paper) and whether this impacts who gets awarded health-related benefits. Five takeaways 🧵

Our position is that both should rise with earnings. That is not what the triple lock does - it is the ratchet effect above earnings that I called crazy.

Rumours Healey will lean into greater use of public financial institutions as a way to boost investment. Affectionately known as PuFins this raises a question: which was the better leaving gift for Elliott Christensen - a Chancellor listening to his report or a resolution foundation cuddly puffin?