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Resolution Foundation

@resolutionfoundation.org

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The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank dedicated to lifting living standards in the UK.

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@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 4:15 PM

The rate of price rises is starting to increase again, driven by the rising cost of energy. This is coming at a time when families are already struggling with the high cost of essentials from earlier periods of inflation.

Line chart showing UK change in CPI price levels by spending category from Jul 2021 to Jul 2026: electricity, gas and other fuels spike above 100% then fall; food rises steadily toward ~40%; petrol is volatile; overall CPI and average weekly earnings climb gradually.
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 3:15 PM

🚨 Join us tomorrow as we review the Chancellor's options in the Autumn Budget.

Healey faces a tough balancing act between funding Burnham's policy ambitions, supporting families through another tough winter, and reassuring markets.

Tickets ➡️ buff.ly/eMUW13M

Event graphic 

Tuesday 13 October 2026
9:30 am - 10:45 am


Hitting the buffers
What could a weaker economic outlook mean for the Budget?
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 2:45 PM

The UK has experienced the equivalent of 13 years’ worth of ‘normal’ inflation in five years.

And the UK has been hit harder by the cost of living crisis than elsewhere.

Read more ⬇️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing Headline consumer prices index: UK, US and euro area (July 2021=100)
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 1:19 PM

There's good news & bad news on food prices.

Food-price inflation has fallen since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

But higher energy prices will eventually feed through into higher food prices: we estimate that it takes around a year for this impact to peak.

➡️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing inflation rates for consumer food prices, food input prices and food output prices: UK

The chart shows that food producers’ output prices are falling and there are only limited signs that input prices – a measure of the costs facing food producers along the supply chain – are picking up. 

But this may change, and the Bank of England is now forecasting a pickup of food inflation inthe coming months
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 12:30 PM

With more people entering retirement while living in the private rented sector, we may soon see "a different sort of multigenerational living", according to Claer Barratt.

In the latest episode of High Resolution, we tackle the triple lock. Listen here ⤵️ buff.ly/GrmapUw

@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 11:15 AM

Private renters on housing support already go without essentials.

Last year, six-in-ten (58 per cent) working-age adults in private-renting families on housing support could not afford basic items

buff.ly/tmfEAWh

Chart showing proportion of working-age adults in private-renting families on housing support who are materially deprived, and who cannot afford selected essentials: GB, 2024-25
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 10:15 AM

The evidence is clear: countries with lower NEET rates than the UK get there almost entirely through higher rates of post-18 education. In these countries, more young people stay in education for longer and often combine it with work.

Comparison of OECD countries’ differences from the UK in 2024 for 18–24‑year‑old participation in education or work
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 9:15 AM

The UK raises more from property taxes than any other OECD country.

3.7% of GDP in 2023, against an OECD average of 2% 📈 ⤵️

But we raise that money badly. Find out how to put England's broken housing taxes on firmer foundations. buff.ly/SAUyopI

Chart showing Property tax revenues as a proportion of GDP, by country: OECD
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 12, 2026, 8:15 AM

Energy prices are set to rise this month and there's a risk they will rise by a significant amount in January.

To manage any big bill spikes the government should look at targeted energy discounts that reach people who need them most 👇 buff.ly/Rh86oQF

Titled "1: the crisis never really ended", with a photo of a household energy bill showing £366.85. Text: wholesale gas prices have climbed back towards their crisis highs, and there is a real risk of another spike in early 2027. Last time, in 2022, the Government provided universal support costing £44 billion, with the richer half of households getting more than half the benefit.Titled "2: The benefit system doesn't capture everyone who needs help", with a thermometer and snowflake icon. Text: basing eligibility for support on receipt of means-tested benefits would only reach around 1 in 4 households, missing most of the poorest half. And it isn't only the very poorest who struggle: in 2022-23, almost two-in-ten of the second-poorest fifth of households couldn't afford to keep their home warm.Titled "3: There's a smarter way to target help", with a thermometer icon and a photo of a crowd on a street. Text: we should instead base eligibility on the income of the highest earner in a household. A £24,000 threshold would reach around two-in-five households, and 75 per cent of the poorest four deciles, nearly as well as using total household income but far simpler to run.Titled "4: Not perfect, but ready for winter", with a photo of snow-covered terraced houses with a For Sale sign, a January calendar icon, and a photo of a crowd. Text: it comes with trade-offs, favouring pensioners, and around 490,000 working-age families with children would miss out. But a £2 billion scheme could give £175 to each eligible household. The Government should start building its support now, so it is ready this winter.
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 11, 2026, 4:34 PM

Energy bills are forecast to jump again in early 2027.

The latest forecasts for the Q1 2027 Price Cap are set to be 16% higher, closing in on highs faced by families when prices were capped in 2022 and 2023.

Read our latest research on the cost of living➡️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing Historical and forecast annualised default tariff cap levels, dual fuel direct debit customers with typical consumption: GB
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 11, 2026, 12:15 PM

🚨 New event: Join us on Tuesday as we review the Chancellor's options in the Autumn Budget.

Healey faces a tough balancing act between funding Burnham's policy ambitions, supporting families through another tough winter, while also reassuring the markets in his Budget.

Tickets ➡️ buff.ly/eMUW13M

Event graphic 

Tuesday 13 October 2026
9:30 am - 10:45 am


Hitting the buffers
What could a weaker economic outlook mean for the Budget?
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 11, 2026, 10:00 AM

The UK has experienced the equivalent of 13 years’ worth of ‘normal’ inflation in five years.

And the UK has been hit harder by the cost of living crisis than elsewhere.

Read more ⬇️
buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing Headline consumer prices index: UK, US and euro area (July 2021=100)
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 10, 2026, 2:45 PM

Reform to England's housing taxes is long overdue.

In our recent Substack, RF Senior Economist Hannah Aldridge makes the case for fixing Council Tax ⬇️

buff.ly/ZnJYFY3

@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 10, 2026, 12:15 PM

Under the current incarnation of the triple lock, State Pension spending accounts for nearly half the projected increase in social security spending by 2029-30

➡️ buff.ly/FY93tV6

chart showing that State Pension spending accounts for nearly half of the projected increase in social security spending by 2029-30. Of a total £30.5bn social security spending, the state pension is projected to be £13.8bn, with £2.2bn spent on pensioner other.
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 10, 2026, 9:30 AM

Being behind on priority bills is spreading up the income distribution.

Since the pandemic, there has been a rise in the number of families in arrears on ‘priority’ bills (energy, water, Council Tax, rent and similar).

Read more 👇️
buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing proportion of individuals living in families behind on at least one priority household bill, by income group: UK
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 9, 2026, 3:45 PM

A combination of poor design and neglect has left residential property taxes a mess.

The current system creates both huge variation in who faces the biggest tax burden and a falling tax rate as the value of a property rises 👇

buff.ly/vBt3VN7

Chart showing Median and interquartile range of annual property taxes as a proportion of property values, by property price: England, 2030-31
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 9, 2026, 2:30 PM

There's good news & bad news on food prices.

Food-price inflation has fallen since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.

But higher energy prices will eventually feed through into higher food prices: we estimate that it takes around a year for this impact to peak.

➡️ buff.ly/QbGKuKU

Chart showing inflation rates for consumer food prices, food input prices and food output prices: UK

The chart shows that food producers’ output prices are falling and there are only limited signs that input prices – a measure of the costs facing food producers along the supply chain – are picking up. 

But this may change, and the Bank of England is now forecasting a pickup of food inflation inthe coming months
@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 9, 2026, 12:45 PM

Good news on the economy? 👀

New ONS estimates imply much faster productivity growth since the financial crisis 👇 buff.ly/zvAuM4g

@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 9, 2026, 11:30 AM

Crowd-pleasing cost of living measures risk being self-defeating

Read our substack on the potential pitfalls of blanket cost of living support at a time of high borrowing costs and pacey price rises 👇️ buff.ly/yAb71H9

@resolutionfoundation.orgOct 9, 2026, 10:45 AM

During the 2022 gas crisis, energy use fell everywhere across England and Wales as people tried to reduce their bills. But there are lots of regional variations: areas in Wales and the north of England cut back more on gas, while more rural regions seem to have economised most on electricity.

Changes in use of electricity (left panel) and gas (right panel) by local authority: 20212022, England and Wales
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