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Menzie Chinn

@mchinn.bsky.social

745 Following5.8k Followers

Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.

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@mchinn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 9:36 PM

Sentiment is down (again) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 5:55 PM

Employment downside surprise, but maybe enough for breakeven? Household survey shows employment below Jan '25 levels #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 4:51 AM

The term spread and the non-recession of 2024 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 6:56 PM

Personal income trajectory revised up... with slight decline in August; employment path continues to diverge from output measures #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 4:11 PM

"The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening"... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 11:19 PM

10 year yields are up, but so are those for maturities > 4 months... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 6:58 PM

10 year above 5.2% #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 3:37 PM

Jeff Frankel: "Oligarchy is a symptom, not a cause" #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 25, 2026, 6:55 PM

The capex picture of 2001 looks different now vs. what it did at the time #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@washingtonpost.comSep 24, 2026, 10:30 PMReposted by @mchinn.bsky.social

Nearly 170,000 pounds of meat products are being recalled because they were falsely labeled as having gone through federal inspection. The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”

washingtonpost.comNearly 170,000 pounds of raw meat recalled for false inspection labelsThe affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”
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@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 8:46 PM

Increased US govt bond issuance, & prospects thereof, colliding with lackluster official sector demand (i.e., central banks); Increased deficits due to higher interest rates that are likely to persist indefinitely (r > g) Elevated elevated uncertainty regarding US macro policy mix can't help, too...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 24, 2026, 7:56 PM

10 year rates (heck all rates) rising, nominal, real #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 23, 2026, 7:06 PM

Refiner cap util at 97.5% for week ending 9/11 #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@weakinstrument.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 6:30 PMReposted by @mchinn.bsky.social

2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels

@aaronsojourner.orgSep 22, 2026, 7:07 PMReposted by @mchinn.bsky.social

Lumaris was started by former Pew researchers to do state level surveys

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

I'm not sure mfg employment is really rising... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 5:49 PM

The State of Working Wisconsin, 2026, fm High Road Strategy Center #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 5:10 PM

I use barchart, also free, for NYMEX futures: www.barchart.com/futures/ener...
No such free access for dated Brent.
EIA reports spot prices for Brent, with a lag.

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 4:19 PM

Gasoline, diesel prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, week/week
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@mchinn.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 12:50 AM

CNN etc. unbanned by 9/30?

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