Sentiment is down (again) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
Employment downside surprise, but maybe enough for breakeven? Household survey shows employment below Jan '25 levels #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
The term spread and the non-recession of 2024 #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Personal income trajectory revised up... with slight decline in August; employment path continues to diverge from output measures #EconSky
"The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening"... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
10 year yields are up, but so are those for maturities > 4 months... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
10 year above 5.2% #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Jeff Frankel: "Oligarchy is a symptom, not a cause" #EconSky
The capex picture of 2001 looks different now vs. what it did at the time #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Nearly 170,000 pounds of meat products are being recalled because they were falsely labeled as having gone through federal inspection. The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”
Increased US govt bond issuance, & prospects thereof, colliding with lackluster official sector demand (i.e., central banks); Increased deficits due to higher interest rates that are likely to persist indefinitely (r > g) Elevated elevated uncertainty regarding US macro policy mix can't help, too...
10 year rates (heck all rates) rising, nominal, real #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Refiner cap util at 97.5% for week ending 9/11 #EconSky
2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels
Lumaris was started by former Pew researchers to do state level surveys
I'm not sure mfg employment is really rising... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
The State of Working Wisconsin, 2026, fm High Road Strategy Center #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
I use barchart, also free, for NYMEX futures: www.barchart.com/futures/ener...
No such free access for dated Brent.
EIA reports spot prices for Brent, with a lag.
Gasoline, diesel prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, week/week
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
CNN etc. unbanned by 9/30?
