@mbarnfield.bsky.socialIf you want to know more, tune in to @listentotimesradio.bsky.social to hear me discuss these results with @hugorifkind.bsky.social at 12:30.
Or drop me, @philipjcowley.bsky.social or @karlpike.bsky.social a line.
Matthew Barnfield
@mbarnfield.bsky.social
@mbarnfield.bsky.social@mbarnfield.bsky.socialBut what even are the short and long term? Do these terms and their linguistic equivalents hold a consistent meaning? Broadly, yes. Short-term policy outcomes are expected within about 2-5 years, long-term 5-10 years. It just depends which policy area you're talking about.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialSo who’s responsible? Whether you think politics is short-termist or long-termist, you typically think that’s due to politicians, not voters. But people are much more inclined to think that voters are responsible for short-termism than for long-termism.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialBut consistently across these countries and the UK, the same kinds of people tend to skew towards seeing politics as short-termist: younger, higher-income graduates.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialIn all other countries we looked at, the overall pattern was reversed. People across five European countries are more likely to think their politics is focused on the long term than the short term.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialThat pattern holds among supporters of all the main parties—whether they voted Labour, Reform, Conservative, Green or Lib Dem in 2024. Elsewhere in Europe, views differ by vote choice, with some evidence of an association with supporting populist parties.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialHere in the UK, we’ve become used to hearing about how our politics is too short-termist. And we find that about two in five British voters believe British politics is focused on the short term, far more than in France, Germany, Italy, Spain or Poland.
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialIs British politics uniquely short-termist? Voters seem to think so.
@philipjcowley.bsky.social @karlpike.bsky.social and I just released @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling on political short/long-termism across Europe.
The UK stands out from its neighbours.
@timbale.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialSorry to be a (Conservative) party pooper, but
@martamiori.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialNew opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊
We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
@timbale.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialMy review of “Sunak at 10: The Last Conservative Prime Minister” (in this month’s Literary Review - highly recommend if you love books).
@karlpike.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialI have a short essay in this relaunched Progressive Review from @ippr.org, called ‘A Liberalism of Public Things’. Open access link below:
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialI had fun writing the Last Word in the latest (penultimate, I believe) issue of Political Insight.
Read for free here: journals.sagepub.com/share/PUST6R...
tl;dr: Burnham must continue to take easy short-term wins and keep banging the drum about the long-term vision those short-term wins serve.
@peterallen.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialLast month, my most recent book ‘How to Think About Politics’ was released in Portuguese with the title ‘Política na vida real’ (trans. Thais Entriel). It is extremely weird but also very cool to see it on sale, a first for me: www.travessa.pt/Artigo/Detal...
@aleferna.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.social🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social!
“How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty”
We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately*
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialJason very nicely summarises our @electoralstudies.bsky.social paper showing that partisan gaps in coalition expectations shrink, but do not entirely disappear, after an election result reduces uncertainty about possible coalition formation.
@jasonreifler.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialAlas, I have no expertise to share on Swedish coalition bargaining. But, I can share an article that focuses on a potentially related topic -- the extent to which election results affect perceptions of likely coalitions (using the 2021 German election).
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialSo the donor is "overseas" if they are currently registered as an overseas voter OR they have *at any point* since Jan 2025 been not resident in the UK? Not sure how resident in the UK is defined there.
So are the interpretations here wrong?: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
@mbarnfield.bsky.socialCoverage of Reform's £72m keeps raising the possibility that the donations may have to be returned under the Representation of the People Bill, without engaging with the text of the bill.
A lot of "Tice said, Rayner said".
These seem like the relevant sections.
@polstudies.bsky.socialReposted by @mbarnfield.bsky.socialIN NEW ISSUE: Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/FGqoGEO
