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NEW: The global economy continues to expand at a solid pace, as the AI boom helps cushion the effects of increased energy prices, inflation, & interest rates. 🗺️Real global GDP is projected to rise 3.2% in 2026 & 3.1% in 2027.

NEW: The US government taking equity ownership in private corporations, aka state capitalism, has occurred on & off over the years, usually in emergencies. Under Trump, state capitalism has reached a high-water mark in the face of fiscal pressures, budget priorities, & Republican past objections.

Land finance helped build China, but left local government finances hostage to the housing cycle. Now that the bubble has burst, China must recalibrate its fiscal system to fund public services, respond to shocks & support the country’s growth model transition without relying on land.

China reports exporting more goods to America than the US says it imports—particularly since early 2025, when the Trump admin sharply increased tariffs on China. The evasion of US tariffs appears to be an important contributor to that gap.

Freyja, a joint Europe-Ukraine antiballistic missile-defense project, could mark a positive step when Kyiv endures barrages of Russian missiles & drones, while supplies of the anti-ballistic missiles Ukraine needs to defend itself are insufficient.

ICYMI: The yuan overall still punches far below China's economic weight. Far from ditching the dollar, China is still tightly tied up in dollar-based global financial networks.

We have once again updated our Trade War Timeline:

Alan Wolff was the Nixon administration’s lead international trade lawyer & drafted what eventually became Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. “I have a long history with it. And it’s being misused.” Read the interview with Section 301's author:

Mexico's Sheinbaum has been in power for 2 years. The economy has preserved macroeconomic stability while growing very little, the labor share of income has continued to improve, & there has been an intentional weakening of key institutions, Alejandro Werner writes.

Happening now! Watch: