My latest post looks at how the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, stuck between Poland and Lithuania, has become a flashpoint in relations between Russian and Europe, a reminder of Russia’s vulnerabilities at a time when it seeks to project strength. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/watch-the-...?

My latest post looks at how the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, stuck between Poland and Lithuania, has become a flashpoint in relations between Russian and Europe, a reminder of Russia’s vulnerabilities at a time when it seeks to project strength. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/watch-the-...?

Would like to add a personal note to this. The ESRC showed remarkable vision in funding this but @anandmenon.bsky.social brought the energy it needed to be the success it is.

It was a model for the kind of academic I had always wanted to be but which really had no place in the existing structures

New post:

The Tory conference represented a clear change in strategy.

But so far the shift has been largely superficial and rhetorical.

There are three big problems with making the strategy work - and it is not at all clear they're resolvable.

samf.substack.com/p/the-three-...

#POLI2049 A good overview of the civil war in Sudan and potential paths forward. Relevant for our discussion of Civil Wars later in the module.

New post:

Burnham has opened the door to a "rejoin" manifesto pledge. The politics make more sense than a lot of people seem to realise.

I look at what it would involve at every step from pledge to referendum. There are significant barriers but it can be done.

samf.substack.com/p/the-route-...

In this post I return again to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi and what it can tell us about current tactics and technologies, and in particular the importance of information security and deception. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/operation-...?

New post:

Burnham has shown this week that he is doing the job of PM in a way Starmer could not.

But a sense of purpose only goes so far. What does the radical rhetoric really mean? What are the next steps?

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/a-journey-...

Latest post considers the ‘forgotten war’ of Sudan. I consider the state of the fighting, the humanitarian crisis, and the logic of partition. This is another example of the difficulty of extracting a good peace from a bad war. (This one is free). samf.substack.com/p/the-sudan-...?

If a 'Blue Wave' comes in the midterms, leaving Dems in control of both House and Senate, how will they use their new power and how with Trump react? In his new post @samfr considers the possibilities. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

New post:

Midterms polling is getting dramatically worse for Trump.

So what happens if he loses the House and Senate?

What could the Democrats do with the powers they'd gain? What impact would it have on global politics?

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Russia is stepping up its campaign to weaken Europe and undermine its support for Ukraine. @hannanotte.bsky.social provides an informed and lucid assessment of what Putin is put to, how far he might go, and how European countries should respond. (£/free trial). samf.substack.com/p/putins-cam...?

@ldfreedman.bsky.social invited me to reflect on Russia’s escalating measures against Europe - and where we might be headed.

The essay builds on my book We Shall Outlast Them, which is out now in the UK and Europe