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Another Californian

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

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A Californian (duh) with friends around the world. Ukraine is the key battlefield in the global confrontation between liberal democracies and authoritarian oligarchies. Democracies must stand together to survive and to thrive. #NAFO

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@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 11:51 AM

I use cumulative totals to derive my daily increments. This way statistics corrections Ukraine issues are reflected without introducing reporting bias. Last week there was a correction in the planes cumulative, hence the -1 in the weekly tally and a corresponding negative ratio in my report.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:06 AM

Russia's 🍋🍋 personnel loss day moved to Feb 9, 2028, from Feb 17, 2028 last week.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:06 AM

A 100-day trailing average number of Russian missiles intercepted by Ukraine per day. Russia tends to accumulate missiles for intense strikes. The average is meant to highlight any long-term trends (attrition vs. production). @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

A 100-day trailing average number of Russian missiles intercepted by Ukraine per day. Russia tends to accumulate missiles for intense strikes. The average is meant to highlight any long-term trends (attrition vs. production). @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:06 AM

The #meatgrinder index is a measure of personnel losses vs. armor and artillery losses; losses at average rates would result in the index = 1. The index dropped even as the personnel losses increased. Ru Armor and artillery losses both increased, with the index reaching 1.5. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

The #meatgrinder index is a measure of personnel losses vs. armor and artillery losses; losses at average rates would result in the index = 1. The index dropped even as the personnel losses increased. Ru Armor and artillery losses both increased, with the index reaching 1.5. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 4:06 AM

5-*week* trend of Russian losses. The numbers are the ratios of the week's losses vs. averages since 2022/02/24. Personnel losses increased yet again to post-2024 highs. Vehicle category also saw a sizeable jump. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

5-*week* trend of Russian losses. The numbers are the ratios of the week's losses vs. averages since 2022/02/24. Personnel losses increased yet again to post-2024 highs. Vehicle category also saw a sizeable jump.  @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
Week Ending	13-Sep	20-Sep	27-Sep	4-Oct	11-Oct
Personnel	1.65	1.74	1.72	1.83	1.89
Tanks	0.25	0.23	0.54	0.14	0.33
APV	0.49	0.29	0.76	0.39	0.36
Artillery	2.00	1.85	1.71	1.22	1.67
MLRS	2.69	2.89	1.88	1.77	2.85
Anti-Aircraft	4.36	3.45	2.57	1.28	2.13
Planes	0.54	0.00	1.08	-0.54	0.00
Helos	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UAV	6.04	5.28	4.42	4.57	5.28
Cruise Missiles	1.90	0.00	0.33	0.38	0.00
Warships	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Vehicles + Fuel trucks	6.12	4.86	4.50	4.61	6.35
Specialty	1.88	1.77	2.01	1.61	1.35
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 3:56 AM

We have yet another recent high for 7-day cumulative Russian losses, at 12,140. All time high for this measure was 12,640, on Dec 26, 2024.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 3:56 AM

Today's raw loss numbers from UA General Staff:

особового складу / personnel – близько 1 552 840 (+1 930) осіб / persons
танків / tanks – 12 408 (+2) од.
бойових броньованих машин / troop-carrying AFVs – 25 521 (+6) од.
артилерійських систем / artillery systems – 51 039 (+39) од.
РСЗВ / MLRS – 2 205 (+4) од.
засоби ППО / anti-aircraft systems – 1 701 (+2) од.
літаків / aircraft – 443 (+0) од.
гелікоптерів / helicopters – 356 (+0) од.
наземні робототехнічні комплекси / ground robotic systems – 2 924 (+7) од.
БПЛА оперативно-тактичного рівня / UAV operational-tactical level – 558 457 (+1 531) од.
крилаті ракети / cruise missiles – 5 126 (+0) од.
кораблі / катери / warships / boats – 35 (+0) од.
підводні човни / submarines – 2 (+0) од.
автомобільна техніка та автоцистерни / vehicles and fuel tanks – 161 503 (+557) од.
спеціальна техніка / special equipment – 4 815 (+3) од.
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 3:56 AM

Oct 10, 2026: 5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
 	7-Oct	8-Oct	9-Oct	10-Oct	11-Oct
Personnel	1.84	1.99	1.86	1.55	2.10
Tanks	0.00	0.41	0.41	0.54	0.27
APV	0.26	0.26	0.46	0.40	0.40
Artillery	1.69	1.56	2.22	1.66	1.29
MLRS	6.15	1.54	3.84	1.53	3.07
Anti-Aircraft	2.00	1.99	1.00	5.96	1.99
Planes	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Helos	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UAV	5.77	5.19	5.34	4.83	4.63
Cruise Missiles	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Warships	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Vehicles + Fuel trucks	6.11	7.04	6.49	5.60	5.83
Specialty	1.76	2.11	1.40	0.70	1.05
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 9:44 PM

Counterpoints:

1. I voted (www.sos.ca.gov/elections)

2. I donated (u24.gov.ua/sky-defense)

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 4:11 AM

Curiously, Novoshahtinsk's Wikipedia entry is mostly the list of Ukrainian drone strikes on the refinery. Today's update is not there yet.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novosha...

@mariadrutska.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 12:10 AMReposted by @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

The Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery is currently receiving drone sanctions. And unlike other sanctions, drone sanctions are not subject to waivers. There will be a lot more of our drone sanctions now. It's clear that this is the only reliable way to cut off Putin's war funding.🔥📉

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 4:02 AM

Today's raw loss numbers from UA General Staff:

особового складу / personnel – близько 1 550 910 (+1 420) осіб / persons
танків / tanks – 12 406 (+4) од.
бойових броньованих машин / troop-carrying AFVs – 25 515 (+6) од.
артилерійських систем / artillery systems – 51 000 (+50) од.
РСЗВ / MLRS – 2 201 (+2) од.
засоби ППО / anti-aircraft systems – 1 699 (+6) од.
літаків / aircraft – 443 (+0) од.
гелікоптерів / helicopters – 356 (+0) од.
наземні робототехнічні комплекси / ground robotic systems – 2 917 (+9) од.
БПЛА оперативно-тактичного рівня / UAV operational-tactical level – 556 926 (+1 591) од.
крилаті ракети / cruise missiles – 5 126 (+0) од.
кораблі / катери / warships / boats – 35 (+0) од.
підводні човни / submarines – 2 (+0) од.
автомобільна техніка та автоцистерни / vehicles and fuel tanks – 160 946 (+534) од.
спеціальна техніка / special equipment – 4 812 (+2) од.
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 4:02 AM

Oct 10, 2026: 5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
 	6-Oct	7-Oct	8-Oct	9-Oct	10-Oct
Personnel	1.68	1.84	1.99	1.86	1.55
Tanks	0.41	0.00	0.41	0.41	0.54
APV	0.46	0.26	0.26	0.46	0.40
Artillery	1.73	1.69	1.56	2.22	1.66
MLRS	1.54	6.15	1.54	3.84	1.53
Anti-Aircraft	0.00	2.00	1.99	1.00	5.96
Planes	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Helos	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UAV	5.79	5.77	5.19	5.34	4.83
Cruise Missiles	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Warships	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Vehicles + Fuel trucks	6.02	6.11	7.04	6.49	5.60
Specialty	0.70	1.76	2.11	1.40	0.70
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 3:06 AM

Trump's promise of 1800000 tons of diesel will cover 4 days of US (not world) use. It will generate ~$2b revenue for Russia, with perhaps $200M of it profit. This will allow Russia to pay 10,000 North Korean soldiers for a a year's contract. 10,000 soldiers that Ukraine will eliminate in 4 days.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:48 AM

Rooting for four teams here. In a way.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:45 AM

We have another recent 7-day cumulative personnel losses record, at 12100. Last time the losses were this high was for a few days in December 2024.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:45 AM

Today's raw loss numbers from UA General Staff:

особового складу / personnel – близько 1 549 490 (+1 710) осіб / persons
танків / tanks – 12 402 (+3) од.
бойових броньованих машин / troop-carrying AFVs – 25 509 (+7) од.
артилерійських систем / artillery systems – 50 950 (+67) од.
РСЗВ / MLRS – 2 199 (+5) од.
засоби ППО / anti-aircraft systems – 1 693 (+1) од.
літаків / aircraft – 443 (+0) од.
гелікоптерів / helicopters – 356 (+0) од.
наземні робототехнічні комплекси / ground robotic systems – 2 908 (+18) од.
БПЛА оперативно-тактичного рівня / UAV operational-tactical level – 555 335 (+1 757) од.
крилаті ракети / cruise missiles – 5 126 (+0) од.
кораблі / катери / warships / boats – 35 (+0) од.
підводні човни / submarines – 2 (+0) од.
автомобільна техніка та автоцистерни / vehicles and fuel tanks – 160 412 (+617) од.
спеціальна техніка / special equipment – 4 810 (+4) од.
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:45 AM

Oct 9, 2026: 5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social

5 days of Russian Federation Armed Forces losses (as reported by General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine) compared to the invasion average: Yellow is below average; Green is above average; the number is the ratio of the day’s losses over average. @anthrclfrnn.bsky.social
 	5-Oct	6-Oct	7-Oct	8-Oct	9-Oct
Personnel	2.20	1.68	1.84	1.99	1.86
Tanks	0.27	0.41	0.00	0.41	0.41
APV	0.26	0.46	0.26	0.26	0.46
Artillery	1.56	1.73	1.69	1.56	2.22
MLRS	2.32	1.54	6.15	1.54	3.84
Anti-Aircraft	2.00	0.00	2.00	1.99	1.00
Planes	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Helos	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
UAV	5.70	5.79	5.77	5.19	5.34
Cruise Missiles	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Warships	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Vehicles + Fuel trucks	7.75	6.02	6.11	7.04	6.49
Specialty	1.76	0.70	1.76	2.11	1.40
@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:37 AM

The hit destroyed the server that stored a high resolution version of this satellite image.

@anthrclfrnn.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 3:17 AM

Yea. It looks better if you are a "glass half full" kind of a person.

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