Michael Bitzer

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Professor of Politics & History; Director, @ncpolitics.bsky.social. Manager, Old North State Politics blog (@oldnorthstpolitics.bsky.social). Interested in NC politics, Southern US politics, & US Politics.

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 14, 2026, 8:34 PM

“The (NC) Republican Senate nominee does not currently have future linear TV ad reservations booked in the race, a highly unusual move less than three weeks before Election Day in a state that was once considered a top GOP priority.”

www.politico.com/live-updates...

#ncpol #ncsen

@today.yougov.com Oct 14, 2026, 8:21 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

NEW Economist/YouGov
Democrats still lead by more than they did at this point in 2018, the year they won the House
Democratic lead among likely voters about three weeks before Election Day
2018: +3
2026: +11
yougov.com/en-us/articl...

A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Democrats have a bigger lead among likely voters in 2026 than they had among the equivalent group in the 2018 midterms." The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (% of likely voters who say the Democratic candidate minus the % who say the Republican candidate)." The chart has the note: "Note: For both years, this chart shows U.S. adult citizens who are registered to vote and either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted. In 2026, respondents were asked about the candidates in their district by name. Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."

@emma-briant.co.uk Oct 13, 2026, 10:49 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

The US midterms are 3 weeks away and election misinformation is already spreading. As of Oct. 13, NewsGuard has debunked 25 viral false claims about the midterms, appearing across 268 websites and accounts.
www.newsguardtech.com/special-repo...

Tracking 25 false claims across 268 websites and accounts
As of Oct. 13, 2026, NewsGuard had identified and debunked 25 false claims about the midterms that have gone viral on social media platforms.

Tracking each claim instance by instance, our analysts have confirmed 365 individual appearances of these claims online across 11 platforms, more than 212 distinct social accounts, 56 websites, and 24 segments on national cable news.

Eleven of the 25 claims centered on supposed election fraud, a particularly pernicious category of false narratives since such claims could undermine confidence in the results of the elections and in democracy itself.

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 13, 2026, 7:12 PM

Cooper up big on Whatley as Trump approval sinks, WRAL/WSOC Poll shows

Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the race to replace Thom Tillis in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new WRAL/WSOC Poll. Early voting starts this week.

#ncpol

www.wral.com/news/nccapit...

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 11:18 PM

NCFREE sees narrower Republican majority in North Carolina House

#ncpol #ncga

ncpoliticalnews.com/news/ncfree-...

@owenwntr.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 10:01 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Voters who live near data centres are swinging hard towards the Democrats, in our polling with YouGov www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Line chart showing the Democratic two-party vote share among Americans living within 2km of a data centre compared with those living further away, from June 2025 to October 2026. Both groups start at around 52%. The Democratic share among those living within 2km rises sharply to 61% by October 2026, compared with a gradual increase to 55% among those living further away. Shaded areas show 95% confidence intervals, which are considerably wider for those living near data centres.

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 2:10 PM

New Substack analysis posted for #ncpol:

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 11, 2026, 4:44 PM

#ncpol #nccourts

@gercohen.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 4:52 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Wake Co NC got 1500+ voter registrations + address updates Fri +351 voted absentee ballots. Got 2 more tubs of mail today (registrations timely mailed before deadline plus absentees). Registrations received before deadline at libraries and other agencies likely to trickle in early next week. #ncpol

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 2:53 PM

“'There’s nothing that Trump can do, and frankly, even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point,' said one GOP operative working on battleground races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape."

www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 4:27 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

94 years: that's how long it's been since Democrats won a Senate race in Kansas.

But Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's polling average. The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance. #KSSen

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 1:17 PM

@cookpolitical.com moves 18 US House races to the Democrats, including NC 1 to Toss Up from Lean Republican

#ncpol

thecookpoliticalreport.substack.com/p/18-more-ho...

@sfcpoll.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 4:42 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

This week's Pollwatcher newsletter includes a comparison of partisan response rates to Washington Post-Schar School Michigan polls in 2024 and 2026 to give a sense of whether dynamics have shifted ->

@juliaazari.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 2:36 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

There's a lot of good stuff in this post by @smotus.bsky.social but a really key point that I need to think more about is that we don't seem to have a clear theory of when Trump follows through on his most extreme threats and when he doesn't

smotus.substack.com/p/preparing-...

@ncpolitics.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 2:47 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

North Carolinians Overwhelmingly Reject Political Violence But See It As Likely Around Elections, Catawba College-YouGov Survey Finds

Roughly six in 10 see political violence as at least somewhat likely in North Carolina & nationally

#ncpol

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/north-caro...

@psypost.bsky.social Oct 7, 2026, 4:16 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Conservatives’ more rigid thinking styles don’t seem to make them likelier than liberals to toe the party line

@raleighreporter.bsky.social Oct 7, 2026, 5:10 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

The #ncga is back in session today to temporarily pause the gas tax. Here's how it would work: www.wunc.org/politics/202... #ncpol

@upshot.nytimes.com Oct 6, 2026, 7:31 PMReposted by @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social

Split-ticket symmetry in New Hampshire ..

Latest polls: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

@bowtiepolitics.bsky.social Oct 6, 2026, 7:40 PM

@cookpolitical.com just moved 3 U.S. Senate races.

#ncpol from "lean Democratic" to "likely Democratic."

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