@valinasr.bsky.social
Professor Johns Hopkins-SAIS, Fr Sr Advisor, State Dept, author of Iran's Grand Strategy https://a.co/d/egLBCgz
@valinasr.bsky.socialBy allowing Russia sell Diesel US is abandoning minimal common ground w Europe on Ukraine for war w Iran. For Europe Russian threat is its top strategic problem. casting Iran as a West's civilizational enemy going back to Ancient Greece can't overcome this significant break between US and Europe.
@valinasr.bsky.socialIn our new piece in Foreign Affairs Narges Bajoghli and I discuss Iran’s theory of victory, why Tehrans calculations are different from common conceptions in the West www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/irans-t...
@valinasr.bsky.socialRetreat of US forces from bases in Persian Gulf to Jordan & Israel & Britain and now retreating from Britain is a setback before effective Iranian strategy, but will have broader unintended consequences for US military presence and effectiveness in rest of the world www.nytimes.com/2026/10/07/u...
@valinasr.bsky.socialReposted by @valinasr.bsky.socialMark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
@valinasr.bsky.socialMark Carney on how grave Canada's rupture with US has become: "on whether he took Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state seriously, Carney suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action." www.nytimes.com/2026/09/23/w...
@valinasr.bsky.socialReposted by @valinasr.bsky.socialMy interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...
@valinasr.bsky.socialMy interview with The Wire on US-Iran: Where are we at? What can we expect next? | Live www.youtube.com/live/5tGC2lD...
@valinasr.bsky.socialTrump ordered US to bomb Houthis on Sunday and then changed his mind. US is short on ammunition or is he worried of Houthis retaliation on Saudi oil facilities or he is keeping his powder dry for a bigger bombing campaign to come against Iran?
www.nytimes.com/2026/09/20/u...
@valinasr.bsky.socialReposted by @valinasr.bsky.socialMy commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
@csis.orgReposted by @valinasr.bsky.social“Iran sees ample opportunity to influence the shape of an emergent order and sees itself as an important part of it,” writes @valinasr.bsky.social.
Read more from @mideast.csis.org: https://bit.ly/4htC6ee
@csis.orgReposted by @valinasr.bsky.social"In the vacuum left by the U.S., Iran expects that China will play a larger role in the Middle East. Its economic presence will likely increase, as will its diplomatic role in mediating peace between rival alliances," writes @valinasr.bsky.social
Read: https://bit.ly/4htC6ee
@mideast.csis.orgReposted by @valinasr.bsky.social"Iran believes that its hold over the Strait of Hormuz will diminish U.S. appetite for another war with Iran, and that will in turn limit Israel’s military options," writes @valinasr.bsky.social in the second installment of The Middle East Futures Papers. www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
@valinasr.bsky.socialMy commentary for CSIS on the ways in which security order in the Middle East has changed during Iran war and Iran views the region’s future www.csis.org/analysis/ira...
@valinasr.bsky.socialJD Vance decided to get his own unvarnished account of how the war is going from US commanders in the field. According NYT what he "came away from some of his conversations with deep concerns about the overall strategy and the prospects for success. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/10/u...
@valinasr.bsky.socialMy interview with WTFinance podcast on where the US-Iran stand-off is heading and the legacy of the war youtu.be/DmXJIDku62I?...
@valinasr.bsky.socialexcellent take on ground realities of Iran's economy and why America can’t easily strangle it www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-ame...
@valinasr.bsky.socialI really enjoyed reading Liaquat Ahamed's 1873. It is economic history at its best. Really well-written and very informative and with much to say the economy today a.co/d/08R0H4dX
@valinasr.bsky.social@valinasr.bsky.socialMy interview with the Telegraph on implications of six month of war for the regional order youtu.be/kTyBdV2-sxA?...
@valinasr.bsky.socialAs Trump’s economic warfare takes its toll, Tehran will be tempted to go on the offensive in search of greater leverage foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/26/i...
