@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine Author of "Expectations Matter: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments".
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialUS aid to #Ukraine: from €17B a year to almost 0.
US diesel imports from Russia: from banned to allowed, after a Trump–Putin call.
Europe carries Ukraine’s military aid.
Course of action?
1) Congress: reverse the waiver.
2) Europe: use frozen Russian assets.
3) Enforce the Graham Act by Oct 18.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialRussia’s energy sales help pay for $190B of its military spending in 2025, nearly triple 2021. ($200B+ budgeted for 2027; no peace plans!)
Ukraine is at $84B, 40% of GDP, & short on defense $.
Response?
1) More money for #Ukraine.
2) No deals with Russia. Not one more barrel of its diesel or oil.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialThis is Ukraine's defense spending. This is a dangerous world. RUS is a threat
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialThis is absurd. The US just lifted sanctions to import diesel from a country that: (1) bans its own diesel exports, (2) is rationing fuel domestically, (3) is bombing #Ukraine energy infrastructure. This is subsidizing Putin's war chest for fuel he can't even reliably deliver. Who does this serve?
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialLimiting the Kremlin's ability to finance this war is one of the most direct ways to protect #Ukraine cities like Pryluky. Every ruble Russia doesn't collect is a ruble not spent on missiles. A former chancellor lending his name to business as usual in Moscow is pushing in the opposite direction.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialToday, a Russian strike on Pryluky 🇺🇦 killed at least 19 people, incl. 5 children. Same day, in Moscow, ex-🇩🇪 Chancellor Gerhard Schröder told staff of the Russian hypermarket chain whose board he just joined: "I'm very happy to be here... and to meet you, my wonderful colleagues." Moral bankruptcy
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialPeople are jumping out of windows... imagine your university or institute is hit like this... and then when you recover from this horror, work on helping 🇺🇦
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialToday Russia hit the National Academy of Sciences and a Dobrobut hospital in #Kyiv...
Barbaric, evil attacks
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialSchool Math Olympiad in #Kyiv these days, held in a bomb shelter.
Russia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities, so these kids solve geometry problems between pipes and ventilation ducts.
Every solved problem is a small act of defiance. 🇺🇦
@cepr.orgReposted by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialWatch the previous session that featured @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social.
@cepr.orgReposted by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialThe winter conference in December 2025 of the EP:PEGI brought together economists to discuss Ukraine's wartime economy and reconstruction. That work is now out on Oxford University Press (Vol. 41, Issue 125): ow.ly/ihla50ZKl9f
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialTalked to @Nestle CEO Mr. Mark Schneider about the side effect of staying in RUS market. Unfortunately, he shows no understanding. Paying taxes to the budget of a terrorist country means killing defenseless children&mothers. Hope that Nestle will change its mind soon. Denys Shmyhal (UKR PM) 3/17/22
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialPutin signed a decree on the nationalization of the Russian assets of Auchan, Nestlé, and the former Leroy Merlin chain. Churchill: "[They] had to choose between war and shame. They chose shame. They will get war too."
@maksympolyakov.bsky.socialReposted by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialFacts do not matter anymore
@voxeu.orgReposted by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialMarvin Amann, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, & Oleksandr Talavera show that Ukrainian allocative productivity is down approx. 20% from its 2021 level by 2024, with roughly half of the wartime output loss attributable to misallocation rather than destruction.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
@mchinn.bsky.socialReposted by @ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialSeptember (prelim) sentiment continues downward trend, as inflation expectations rise #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialNew piece with @tderyugina.bsky.social and @ilonasolohub.bsky.social
The main message is: Europe in 2025 is #Ukraine in 2014.
Not investing in defense, thinking the war is local, letting RUS information space, believing that someone else will protect, trying to make a deal with Putin
Big mistakes
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialTrump does not support Ukraine either
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialFor Europe: economic preparedness should go beyond defense budgets and strategic reserves. If half the cost of war is allocative, then pre-conflict investments in institutional flexibility and rapid reallocation capacity may yield extraordinary returns.
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.socialTwo implications for policy: For Ukraine: rebuilding isn't just about replacing destroyed capital. It's about reconnecting what remains — workers, firms, markets. That requires policy adjustment, not just funding.
