Geoffrey Skelley

@geoffreyskelley.com

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.social's Chief Election Analyst. Previous stops at FiveThirtyEight, UVA Center for Politics. VA native now in VT. UVA & JMU alum.
https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

94 years: that's how long it's been since Democrats won a Senate race in Kansas.

But Democrat Adam Hamilton is running a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's polling average. The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance. #KSSen

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

How likely is a Democratic sweep of Congress? The DDHQ Forecast puts it at just above 1 in 2. Democrats are clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the Senate.

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: U.S. House 🟦 Democrats: 75% 🟥 Republicans: 25% Democrats average 234 seats across 1 million simulations and are at least slight favorites in 21 Republican-held seats:

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

Alaska Senate Polling Average (DDHQ):
🟦 Mary Peltola: 50%
🟥 Dan Sullivan: 48%

The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola just over a 3 in 5 shot of winning, making Alaska the Democrats' second-most likely Senate flip after North Carolina. #AKSen

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

Not since 1992 has this much of Congress headed for the exits before an election. 100 members — 84 House, 16 Senate — have left or announced departures since January 2025. That's 18% of the 119th Congress.

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

DDHQ POLLING UPDATE: Maine Senate
🟦 Troy Jackson (D): 47%
🟥 Susan Collins (R): 45%

Jackson leads, but the DDHQ Forecast gives each candidate about a 1 in 2 shot. Collins has outrun her polling before. #MESen

Read DDHQ's latest polling memo:

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

The DDHQ Forecast now has the U.S. Senate as a pure toss-up for the first time since early June. The average seat outcome across 1 million simulations remains a 50-50 tie, which would be a narrow win for Republicans thanks to Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote.

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

9 months ago, it seemed unlikely that the #NHSen Democratic primary might be closer than the GOP race.

Yet Rep. Chris Pappas is a tad concerned about progressive Karishma Manzur. Meanwhile, ex-Sen. John Sununu is up 34 pts on ex-Sen. Scott Brown. DDHQ's primary preview has more.

@decisiondeskhq.bsky.socialReposted by @geoffreyskelley.com

In DDHQ's polling memo, we zoom in on the #MTSen race. Plus, updates on presidential approval, the generic ballot & all the key races.

In Montana's Senate race, Kurt Alme (R) leads a 3-way contest. In DDHQ's average, Alme has 44%, Seth Bodnar (Ind) 26% & Alani Bankhead (D) 21%.

Read the memo: