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Robert Rohde

@rarohde.bsky.social

599 Following8.6k Followers

Chief Scientist for @berkeleyearth.org. Physics PhD & data nerd. Usually focused on climate change, fossil fuels, & air quality issues.

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@rarohde.bsky.socialOct 3, 2026, 7:43 PM

The transition to high-res and the accompanying change in the interpolation scheme resulted in a somewhat lower temperature change since preindustrial. (This is mostly a change in the estimate of the 1850-1900 baseline.)

@zhirji.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 2:06 PMReposted by @rarohde.bsky.social

What does the Senate permitting deal mean for US climate emissions?

Some early modeling and several experts told me + @leslieatlarge.bsky.social the reforms are likely to slash US greenhouse gas emissions.

Full story @bloomberg.com, with gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.comWhat the Senate Permitting Deal Means for US Climate EmissionsExperts say the bill, which would speed clean-energy and fossil-fuel projects alike, would probably reduce greenhouse gas emissions overall.
3
@ianhall.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 5:11 AMReposted by @rarohde.bsky.social

Swiss glaciers suffer 'disastrous' year of ice loss, threatening water supplies

"…in its simplest form, what we see right now is that we took an ice cube out of the fridge and it's just melting in front of our eyes."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 8:27 PM

That's not entirely clear actually. The effect on atmospheric circulation and wind patterns is dominated by temperature differences. So relative may actually forecast that better. But the effect on precipitation and atmospheric water vapor probably follows the absolute value better.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 8:22 AM

Though global warming is certainly contributing to the severity of this El Niño, especially when measured against historical temperature benchmarks, the current event is still a beast on its own terms.

Forecasts have it crushing all past records.

h/t @zekehausfather.com

Time series of historical and forecast Oceanic Nino Index for the current El Niño and historical events.  Not adjusted for mean ocean warming.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 8:22 AM

The ocean as a whole has warmed almost 1 °C over the last 50 years.

Time series of August monthly averages of ocean mean temperature since 1850.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 8:22 AM

Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 12:16 PM

There are times when I am glad that I don't work for either the government nor a public university.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 11:08 AM

There is something extra annoying about finding a government "open data" portal that has exactly the data you're looking for and then discovering that only nationals of that country are actually able to use it.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 10:47 AM

I mean "independently?" in the sense that I don't know if the agent itself was responsible for deciding who to email and what to discuss, or if a human was telling it specifically who to write and what topic to discuss. The former is more of an escalation for spam than the latter.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 7:41 AM

So this is the future, huh? An AI Agent emailed me (independently?) to share the results of their research.

Screenshot from an email purportedly sense by an AI Agent describing their analysis of OISST daily temperature changes.  The email address and two URLs have been masked for privacy / safety.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 11:31 AM

This is what a monster El Niño on an ocean already warmed by climate change looks like.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 9:43 AM

Berkeley Earth will be holding our monthly climate briefing on Thursday.

Safe to say that there is a lot going on with weather and climate the moment.

8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET

It is geared towards the media, but anyone is welcome.

us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Press briefing announcement cover image.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 12:44 PM

Trump's strategy for reducing global oil use wasn't what I would have recommended, but it does seem to be effective.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 10:18 AM

This year produced the hottest summer in the history of modern France. Some of that record is down to the specific weather patterns that occurred this year, but global warming deserves a large share of the credit for generally making French summers hotter over time.

Time series plot of June to August national mean temperature anomalies for France.  Shown relative to the 1850-1900 average.  Data from Berkeley Earth.
@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 7, 2026, 11:28 AM

We don't have any funding for building warning systems and raising money to build and sustain such things is often quite hard in general, especially when the target is an event type that occurs very rarely. Its not a good idea, but its also not easy to accomplish.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 4, 2026, 6:40 PM

I once had a prominent spelling mistake in a video that went viral to millions.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 4, 2026, 5:58 PM

Not that I recall this week, though "grifter" and similar themes were certainly represented, even if not that specific slur.

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 4, 2026, 5:32 PM

This site is practically boring. I posted a whole thread related to climate and have yet to be called a retard, moron, clown, grifter, or "slimy MF".

@rarohde.bsky.socialSep 4, 2026, 9:45 AM

As far as I'm aware they don't know. The failure of the land and ice were contemporaneous, but whether the rock slope failed first and brought down the ice, or the ice failed first and the shifting weight triggered a larger landslide isn't resolved as far as I know.

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