Its calmed down a tad in terms of the near-term jump, but yes forecast models have global temperatures going into record territory over the next few weeks:

As always, you can stay up to date on El Niño observations and models over at the Climate Dashboard:

And the relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) version of that figure:

And the latest projected El Niño peak for each model and across all models:

Here is what all the individual models show in October runs compared with September runs:

There is a bit of a jump between observed September Oceanic Niño Index (ONI – 2.8C) and projected October ONI (~3.6C) in the models, but this isn't too far out of the realm of possibility as its been averaging about 3.2C over the first third of October:

The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

Good prediction! Though note thats just for ERA5; the average of all the groups will be closer to 1.5C this year:

For more details and daily updated, head over to the Climate Dashboard:

And Niño 1+2 region anomalies are at a stunning 5.3C, far above any prior year.

Niño3 region anomalies are well into record territory at 4.1C.

The relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) is up to 3C; not quite in record territory yet, but rapidly closing in. With another two months or so of growth to go its almost certain to set a record as well.

This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncharted waters; Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El Niño event on record. September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).

At least in the US context we are increasingly seeing data centers being built with offgrid gas, so its not clear to me that the presence of clean energy on the grid is enabling datacenters. Whether policymakers accept datacenter developer arguments about being good or bad is somewhat separate...

Arguments need not be in service to a particular goal, other than the truth.

The price elasticity of electricity demand is (at least historically) not that high. But some of the biggest drivers of new demand (vehicle and building electrification) are also direct drivers of emissions reductions. So if there is a meaningful Jevon's effect it cuts both ways here!

This analysis is only looking at electricity generation – so EV adoption (>30% of new cars this year!) show up on the demand side, but the avoided oil emissions are not included.

*Sorry, 57%, not 75%. A bit of latent dyslexia there 😉

Plus there is no lack of examples of absolute reductions in fossil power generation: