@survation.bsky.social
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@compassoffice.bsky.socialReposted by @survation.bsky.socialTonight at 6pm we have a LIVE recording of our podcast focusing on the fallout of the Holborn & St. Pancras by-election!
Our Director Neal and Deputy Director Lena are joined by @damiansurvation.bsky.social and @fayebrownjourno.bsky.social!
Listen wherever you get your podcasts.
@damiansurvation.bsky.socialReposted by @survation.bsky.socialInside me are two wolves. The first wolf goes ‘go to bed early before the by-election in Holborn & St Pancras, then do an early start’. The second wolf…
got through a 7:20am LBC News slot and is excited to be on "It’s Bloody Complicated: After H&StP at 6pm: www.compassonline.org.uk/podcast/list...
@survation.bsky.socialWe are hiring!
We're looking for a Junior Research & Data Analyst to join our team
If you have some hands-on experience analysing data in R or Python and are interested in how polling works, we'd love to hear from you.
Read more and apply here: www.survation.com/careers/juni...
@survation.bsky.socialGET THE DATA:
Survation interviewed 1,974 UK adults aged 18+ on their voting intention.
Fieldwork: 3-5 October 2026
Data tables can be downloaded here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...
@survation.bsky.socialRead the full analysis at: www.survation.com/labour-at-30...
@survation.bsky.socialConfidence in the government's ability to handle the issues of the economy, NHS and national security have improved since the last poll.
@survation.bsky.socialAndy Burnham remains the most liked party leader, at +19 this week, compared to +16 last time.
@survation.bsky.socialFollowing conference season, this is Labour's highest result since December 2024, with the last 5 polls having had them between 27%-30%.
@survation.bsky.socialNEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 30% (+1) RFM 24% (+1) CON 19% (=) LD 9% (=) GRN 8% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) RB 2% (-1) PC 2% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026
@survation.bsky.socialRead the full story here: www.survation.com/a-popular-le...
@survation.bsky.socialBadenoch's own seat is safer than in 2024 Badenoch won North West Essex in 2024 with a majority of 2,610 votes over Labour, 4.8 points. The MRP puts her on 32%, ahead of Labour on 24.5% and Reform UK on 22%, a lead of 7.5 points and a 97% probability of holding the seat.
@survation.bsky.socialThe Survation x 38 Degrees MRP, with fieldwork from the 20th of August to the 4th of September, projects the Conservatives to win 85 seats on 19.7% of the vote, down from the 121 they won in 2024.
@survation.bsky.socialWhen Badenoch became leader, 78% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would do so again. By last winter that had fallen to 64%, with 30% saying they would vote Reform UK. Averaged across our polls since mid-August, it has recovered to 69%, with 23% going to Reform.
@survation.bsky.socialAt the same time, in our poll of the 22nd and 23rd of September, 42% say Kemi Badenoch is doing well as leader of the Conservative Party and 33% say she is not, a net score of +9
@survation.bsky.socialIs Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives? The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September In all of our polls since June 2025, they have been between 18% and 21%.
@survation.bsky.socialFull analysis on our blog: www.survation.com/where-will-t...
@survation.bsky.socialHow did Andy Burnham's conference speech land with the public, and what did they make of the triple lock announcement?
Last week @damiansurvation.bsky.social took @andrewmarr.bsky.social through our snap poll on @lbc.co.uk.
@survation.bsky.socialGET THE DATA
Survation interviewed 1,548 UK adults aged 18+ on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork: evening of 29 September 2026. Data tables can be downloaded here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...
@survation.bsky.socialThis is the highest vote share we have recorded for Labour since December 2024 and up 10 points from its lowest ever share in February 2026.
@survation.bsky.socialNEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 29% (+2) RFM 23% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 9% (-2) GRN 9% (+2) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 1% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 29 September 2026. Changes vs 23/09/2026
