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Jon B. Wolfsthal

@jonatomic.bsky.social

472 Following5k Followers

Nuclear Fellow @ Pax Sapiens, former Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and State Department International Sec Advisory Board, CNAS Sr. Fellow, former National Security Council. No #manels, Yankees/Gunners.

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@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 5:31 PM

Trump is on Putin’s side. Americans are on Ukraine’s side.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 14, 2026, 12:28 PM

I am already a big fan of @wellerstein.bsky.social and @matthew-bunn.bsky.social so no surprise I was enthralled. Alex seems to know more about this subject than any person alive.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/h...

podcasts.apple.comHow We Unleashed the Nuclear AgePodcast Episode · Face-Off · S4 E2 · 50m
@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 10:11 PM

That will be their answer, yes.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 5:20 PM

The next normal step is for DOJ to investigate her for both solicitation of a bribe and misuse of her public position to enrich herself.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 5:07 PM

Happy to help. Surprised this has not come up. In the 1980s and 1990s it was common knowledge for nuke types. Maybe my age is finally paying off?

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 3:15 PM

the Saudis specifically and the Arab ME broadly have opposed AP because Israel is not an NPT member. They have invested political capital for decades opposing AP as long as Israel is not an NPT member. I do not know how deeply they really care, but this is a long standing position.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:12 PM

You have to REALLY be bad at grifting for Trump to say "wow, that is bad, you have to go." Either that, or he did not get a cut.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 2:10 PM

Alternative, the IAEA DG could have a role in saying "yes, what has been negotiated gives us as good or better access than an AP" but they would rely a lot on US guidance and intelligence. So again, not a reliable source at this point.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 1:49 PM

Again with the Guru?

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 1:49 PM

See also Mike Trout.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 1:45 PM

The non-AP approach was also considered under Biden. The standard IS and should be the AP, but there are ways to get the same and even a better standard by a different name. The problem is you need an objective IC to say - "yes, this is as good or better" and this IC cannot be relied on.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 13, 2026, 12:10 PM

I led a National Security Council meeting in 2016 about industry and scientific concern over armed robots. At the end of the meeting, one of my colleagues came up and asked if any of these people had ever seen a science fiction movie in their whole lives.

@mrdanzak.comOct 13, 2026, 11:46 AMReposted by @jonatomic.bsky.social

Since his first trip to Moscow in 1987, Trump “has loudly repeated Russian propaganda … Upon returning from that trip, he took out full-page ads in three newspapers, attacking American alliances ... For nearly 40 yers, he has been saying much the same thing.” www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1...

@atomicanalyst.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 2:32 PMReposted by @jonatomic.bsky.social

OTD 40 yrs ago, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev met for the second time at Hofdi House in Reykjavik, Iceland. The two-day weekend meeting was technically not a US-USSR summit but a working session to discuss mutual reductions in strategic nuclear weapons. But Gorbachev had a surprise planned …

A color photograph of US President Ronald Reagan greeting General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev at the front door of Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey suit.A color photograph of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev posing and smiling for photographers outside Hofdi House in Reykjavik. Reagan is wearing a brown suit and tie, while Gorbachev is wearing a grey overcoat over a grey suit.A color photograph of Mikhail Gorbachev, left, and Ronald Reagan, right, sitting in light-colored armchairs talking to reporters in a room in Hofdi House with windows overlooking the sea behind them. Small sculptures sit on the windowsill behind them, and a small green plant on a table is between their two chairs.
@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:30 PM

No one believes he would.

@nathalietocci.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 9:12 AMReposted by @jonatomic.bsky.social

I’m surprised anyone is surprised about Trump’s fuel deal w Putin, his attacks on Zelensky &threats to suspend intel cooperation w Kyiv. Trump’s instincts on this war boringly predictable by now. All else is theatrics and wishful thinking

@kateinkharkiv.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 6:25 PMReposted by @jonatomic.bsky.social

Just so you understand the depth of the cynicism: Trump’s failed war with Iran not only raised America's gas prices, but also global oil prices, which allowed Russia to make a gigantic amount of money and fund the killing of Ukrainians. ​And then they blame Ukraine for a disaster of

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@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 12:27 PM

It is a flawed society that executes people. It is a sick society that broadcasts the execution of people.

@jonatomic.bsky.socialOct 11, 2026, 3:13 AM

He keeps saying it, but that does not make it true. Ukraine is not the reason the war continues. Russia started the war. Russia continues to fight the war. Russia can stop the war tonight. Ukraine is defending itself and the US people are on their side. Only Trump and his cronies are not.

@washingtonpost.comOct 10, 2026, 5:41 PMReposted by @jonatomic.bsky.social

Breaking news: The Pentagon acknowledged that the number of troops who have died in the Middle East during its operations against Iran is higher than previously reported, and updated the official count to include two more noncombat deaths.

washingtonpost.comPentagon raises official toll of troops killed during war with Iran to 21The Post exclusively reported last month that the numbers of service members lost was greater than what the Pentagon was reporting in its public database.
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