Grilled Cheese

ExploreLog inSign up

Erika McEntarfer

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

487 Following17.1k Followers

Former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Ex-Council of Economic Advisers, Census, and Treasury. Bay Area/DC dual citizen. Personal account, all opinions my own

PostsRepliesMedia
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 1:51 PM

You can see a preview of this in local markets that have experienced population declines. Housing is relatively cheap but the housing stock depreciates faster and there is litle new construction so the supply effects somewhat mute the demand effects

@mikezaccardi.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 12:01 PMReposted by @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

AI isn't in the productivity data yet. -T at Apollo Output/hour is ∼2.5% but SF Fed TFP is ∼0% and flat since the AI boom started. Capital deepening.. not innovation.

Photo, no description
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 9:18 PM

Has AI generated a boom in entrepreneurship? It would make sense that it would - AI makes it easier to go out on your own and creates demand for new business services.

But Nathan Goldschlag at EIG finds no strong evidence that AI is boosting new business formation yet.
eig.org/ai-and-entre...

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 12:37 AM

This image, from the forced ouster of NIH director Francis Collins, is just unbelievably gutting and enraging

But when he describes the day Collins was compelled to leave the job he loved, Lewis writes that Collins called “his wife, who picked him up to drive him home. He left carrying a small cardboard box with a few pictures, a spare necktie, some ramen noodle packages, and a mirror made by children in NIH clinical trials, all of whom had died. He’d bought it at an auction to raise money for a children’s hospital.” Although personally modest, Collins has an impressive record. He headed the Human Genome Project and was instrumental in identifying the gene responsible for cystic fibrosis. The “small cardboard box,” in this light, makes for an especially poignant touch at the end of an extraordinary career.
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 11:58 PM

'Blockers' is out now. slate.com/culture/2026...

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 6, 2026, 4:14 PM

New NY Fed research finds that: (1) tariff pass-through through import prices was 1-to-1, (2) pass-through to consumer prices from increased import/producer prices was about 50%, (3) tariff impacts on inflation peaked in February. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 6:21 PM

Good on Michael Lewis for giving the DOGE story the journalistic-thriller treatment it deserves. Two events that fundamentally shook my sense of this country's stability were January 6th, 2021, and the six months I spent dealing with DOGE.

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialOct 2, 2026, 5:37 PM

In streamed an army of cops...and, trotting after them, Nate Cavanaugh, along with more DOGE people. “They are ordering the D.C. cops around like their own private army,” said Colin. “I didn’t see that coming. I didn’t see the police taking sides.” www.wsj.com/politics/mic...

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 5:47 PM

“AI is identifying more billable conditions, not sicker patients“ interesting article on AI cost pressure in health care

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 28, 2026, 4:12 PM

Aldis are more common than Costco in rural areas, and rural areas have older populations than urban/suburban areas; familiarity may explain these generational differences.

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 6:57 PM

bsky.app/profile/weak...

@carlquintanilla.bsky.socialSep 21, 2026, 4:29 PMReposted by @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

(WSJ) - For decades, the Federal Reserve's playbook for oil shocks has been to wait them out. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday that approach has reached its limit.

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Photo, no description
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 5:59 PM

So what is the cheaper alternative? Genuine question

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 5:35 PM

I have a chronic issue that the AI will tell me a certain paper can be cited as evidence for a claim and I will go read the paper and find that AI incorrectly characterized the findings

@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 12:45 AM

Text from the article in the link
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 12:34 AM

Justice, at long last, for Andreas Georgiou. A brave and honorable man

@gilesyb.bsky.socialSep 12, 2026, 7:02 AMReposted by @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so...

The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social

@hansilowang.bsky.socialSep 9, 2026, 1:00 PMReposted by @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

BREAKING: Trump admin proposes major #2030Census changes that would reshape voting maps, including no race & ethnicity questions and excluding non-U.S. citizens without a green card from a count that 14th Amendment says must include “whole number of persons in each state”
www.npr.org/2026/09/09/n...

npr.orgTrump officials propose sweeping changes to the census that would reshape voting mapsA Trump census proposal would stop asking about race and exclude millions of U.S. residents from a count that the 14th Amendment says must include the "whole number of persons in each state."
22
@telliotter.bsky.socialSep 9, 2026, 1:25 PMReposted by @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social

SCOOP: An anonymous census report claimed thousands of noncitizens voted. But @davidgilbert.bsky.social and I found that not only was the report based on bad data, its authors include members of a Trump-aligned think tank and a former member of DOGE. @wired.com

www.wired.com/story/a-us-c...

wired.comA US Census Report on Noncitizen Voting Used Bad Data to Reach Faulty ConclusionsTrump has touted a recent Census report. WIRED found grave flaws in its analysis and the process behind it, and confirmed the identity of several of its authors—among them a one-time DOGE affiliate.
11
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.socialSep 8, 2026, 7:36 PM

What's happening here has little to do with AI and more to do with structural change in the information sector, which is shedding jobs in legacy industries like telecom, media, and - more recently - motion pictures (covid, strikes, not recovering). The sector is not a good proxy for 'tech' jobs.

Older posts
Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyCommunity StandardsHelpGet the app

Grilled Cheese is a product of Village Compute

Version devBuilt at: 2026-10-13 22:15:16 EDT