That's really the whole ballgame.

This is how the U.S. is choosing to treat vulnerable children

that’s nice ty

expectations by dec 27 begin to dip, though not yet enough to suggest cuts/policy error

fed futures have 72 pct chance of a hike in Oct (fully priced by Dec), then a second by March and a third by June

a legend making a legendary move

JPMorgan’s commodities team: “For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”

Maybe this doesn't matter in the long run, but I think the risks of The One Industry narrating its own story on a single social network — and X in particular — could be producing some underrated distortions, blind spots, etc. And there's no higher shared context in which to process those risks!

seems like there should be a way for someone to exploit the 4 percentage point difference in odds on a hike today between futures market and Kalshi, but I'm failing to imagine what that would be