Rory Johnston

@roryjohnston.bsky.social

oil market researcher
founder of https://CommodityContext.com
former bank economist
markets, code, barbecue

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Aug 5, 2026, 2:51 PM Pinned

🚨 NEW POST 🚨

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗷𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝟭: 𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗢𝗶𝗹

The unprecedented and acute pullback in Chinese crude imports was the largest unexpected oil market swing to counterbalance the Hormuz supply shock—so how’d they pull it off?
www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...

commoditycontext.comThe Beijing Swing, Part 1: Crude OilThe unprecedented pullback in Chinese crude oil imports was the largest unexpected oil market swing to counterbalance history’s greatest supply shock in the Strait of Hormuz—so how’d they pull it off?

@michaelsderby.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 9:15 PMReposted by @roryjohnston.bsky.social

Trump’s attempt to get Russian energy bailout? “‘I cannot overstate how much of a nothing burger this is,’ Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com.”

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 8:58 PM

Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely

Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw41w26

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 8:57 PM

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rises as most intense pace of Iranian shipping strikes of the war reverses previous recovery in oil flowing through the Strait, while the White House grows ever-more desperate on diesel. Summary below, full report in replies

@brightoncap.bsky.social Oct 4, 2026, 6:07 PMReposted by @roryjohnston.bsky.social

"Oil Was Pouring Through the Strait of Hormuz Again... BUT
Iran’s targeting of ships has improved...making transits through the Strait of Hormuz riskier"

Free link and comment from @roryjohnston.bsky.social

Landed values at final destination must be 💲🚀

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 4, 2026, 8:22 PM

Spoke with CBC this morning about the latest developments in the the Strait of Hormuz, the broader oil market, and what it means for you and your wallet at the pump. Watch:

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 2, 2026, 9:11 PM

Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely

Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw40w26

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 2, 2026, 9:10 PM

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again Summary below, full report in reply.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 5:53 PMReposted by @roryjohnston.bsky.social

🚨 NEW POST 🚨

⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀

Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble
www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 6:17 PM

the typos are always in the last-minute changes I make to the bullets every.time.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 6:13 PM

thanks, fixed.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Oct 1, 2026, 5:53 PM

🚨 NEW POST 🚨

⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 30, 2026, 10:42 PM

Read the full piece here about why a US diesel export ban is a cursed non-solution to our current crisis.
newrepublic.com/article/2159...

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 30, 2026, 10:41 PM

Spoke with the @newrepublic.com’s @gracesegers.bsky.social about the diesel crisis and how consumers can’t get away from the fuel even if they wanted

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 30, 2026, 1:50 PM

Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back to fresh all-time highs. Now at ~$228/bbl in New York Harbor, outstripping the prior all-time set two weeks ago.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 3:11 PM

Still wouldn’t have believed you.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 26, 2026, 2:21 PM

“Hormuz oil flows can’t possible be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100!” Brother, if you had told an oil analyst in January that Hormuz flows were still down 7 MMbpd after >200 days of war—with the East-West pipeline hobbled—and oil was ONLY $100 they’d have looked at you like

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 25, 2026, 8:38 PM

Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw39w26

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 25, 2026, 8:37 PM

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉📈📉 Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 25, 2026, 6:16 PM

Hi, Reuters, quick note: WE DO NOT MEASURE OIL FLOW IN BARRELS PER WEEK

@roryjohnston.bsky.social Sep 25, 2026, 3:45 PM

The last time 30-year yields were this high:

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