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Peter Ellis

@freerangestats.info

1.9k Following3.3k Followers

Director, Statistics for Development Division, at the Pacific Community. Posts are personal views, and most likely to be about data and #rstats, maybe with bits of history, social science and philosophy thrown in. Blog is at https://freerangestats.info/.

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@freerangestats.infoOct 16, 2026, 5:09 AM

I think we should also discourage people torturing and raping dolls. Not because of damage to the dolls but to the perpetrator.

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 6:46 PM

US total crude oil stocks have fallen below 700 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s. But that's still plenty of crude oil for going on with (US refineries use about 17m barrels per day at peak throughput). freerangestats.info/fuel-crisis/...

Line chart of U.S. crude oil stocks (including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) from 2000 to October 2026. Stocks rose from about 850 million barrels in 2000 to a peak near 1.23 billion barrels in 2017, then declined sharply after April 2026. Current stocks are 699 million barrels, equivalent to about 40 days of refinery crude supply. Two illustrative stress thresholds are marked at 30 days (about 530 million barrels) and 24 days (about 425 million barrels). At the recent drawdown rate of 6.6 million barrels per week, stocks would reach the 30‑day threshold in roughly 25 weeks if the decline continued linearly.
@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 8:04 AM

I think he is against puns, and for appearing Serious (and I agree with him, given the money involved).

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 7:47 AM

Was pleased today that I at least was able to mention 'neglected tropical diseases' in a speech, one of the existing but, well, neglected, black marks on humanity.

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 7:41 AM

Me, I am Firmly anti-pun in scientific article titles.

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM

Have read this thread without realising are you pro or anti pun?

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 5:44 AM

It seems to me that AI should be able to radically improve education efficiency, but the tech bros are hopelessly naive and wrong-headed about how, and actual education experts who could lead this are sidelined, alienated, or resistant.

@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 4:21 AM

It's fit for purpose.

@bharrap.bsky.socialOct 15, 2026, 3:20 AMReposted by @freerangestats.info

Good talk and great plots from @freerangestats.info at #AEA2026

#rstats

Peter Ellis stood at a lectern, gesturing at a presentation
@freerangestats.infoOct 15, 2026, 4:19 AM

This particular plot is thanks to @bencochrane.bsky.social.

@freerangestats.infoOct 14, 2026, 8:45 PM

My (Claude's really) back of the envelope (I don't have scripts to monitor these ones automatically like I do NZ and USA) suggest diesel is about US$7 per gallon in Australia and US$10 per gallon in UK.

@freerangestats.infoOct 14, 2026, 8:41 PM

US diesel has been retailing at above $6 per gallon for a while now and looks likely to stay there for a while longer. But still cheap compared to elsewhere. Only briefly was it more expensive in the USA than New Zealand (not counting the NZ road user charges). freerangestats.info/fuel-crisis/...

line chart showing USA and NZ retail petrol (gaoline) and diesel prices. The last few weeks NZ prices have been more than USA for diesel, but there was a time in September US prices were more. Gasoline is always much more expensive in NZ (because of taxes).
@freerangestats.infoOct 14, 2026, 7:45 PM

Even so it's still correct that 'you'd expect X to be ahead in some if Y is really ahead by 3' - unless you're saying beyond weighting, it's entirely deterministic.

@freerangestats.infoOct 14, 2026, 8:34 AM

It must be particularly complex trying to vaccinate birds that are shy.

@freerangestats.infoOct 14, 2026, 5:49 AM

Great keynote today by Neil Pearce for the Australasian Epidemiological Association using asthma and kidney disease as egs. Argues much that is called 'causal inference' is really causal estimation, and inference is more like multi-source, multi-method detective work eliminating suspects one by one.

Lecturer in front of slides showing news articles claiming kidney disease in Sri Lanka is 'caused by pesticides', which turned out to be wrong, and action based on the hypothesis was economically and socially very costly.
@colin-fraser.netOct 13, 2026, 7:41 PMReposted by @freerangestats.info

What I am getting at is I believe that if there was a credible threat of getting in actual trouble when your AI does something bad that the labs would implement basic simple measures that would be highly effective at preventing those bad things.

@freerangestats.infoOct 13, 2026, 7:33 PM

This post concludes 'Spotify is actually the best music streaming service that currently exists', and even the one he switched to is inferior in lacking a large chunk of music his wife wants.

@freerangestats.infoOct 13, 2026, 10:31 AM

Nothing in measurement is certain, but the ILO statistical standards are among the oldest and best followed on the planet, and the US methods basically conform, so I think if you look at this on ILOStat the comparison will be pretty fair.

@freerangestats.infoOct 13, 2026, 9:14 AM

I think Wittgenstein wins if the field is philosophers, but Ashoka, Stravisnky, Picasso if we let other fields in.

@freerangestats.infoOct 13, 2026, 7:16 AM

This is genuinely interesting from a ministerial v cabinet responsibility question. You don't often see this sort of thing under quasi-presidential prime ministers.

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