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Christabel Cooper

@christabelcoops.bsky.social

642 Following11.1k Followers

Director of Research at ThinkLabour. Interested in politics and data. Interested in how people think about politics and data.

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@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 12:18 PM

But as we also noted, younger voters have been moving away from Labour, not just over values (which Burnham has done much to address) but economic insecurity, largely driven by housing costs in major cities. To secure its long-term electoral position in urban areas, Labour needs to fix this.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 12:18 PM

The result is an endorsement of a positive strategy which avoided directly attacking the Greens, as @thinklabour.bsky.social recommended in our recent report on the Green threat. We found that Green considerers saw attacks on the Greens as like "kicking a puppy".
thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/pai...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 12:18 PM

Some excellent analysis from @morganj0nes.bsky.social shows that Labour-Green considerers voted Labour in order to give the new administration "a chance", i.e. the government is on probation. www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 10, 2026, 12:18 PM

Thoughts on Holborn & St P: Not ideal Green territory. May's locals were a Labour-Green toss-up here, so with Labour's position improving under Burnham, a fairly comfortable hold was to be expected. But it means that in the places where the Greens actually beat Labour in May, they remain a threat.

@danmead.bsky.socialOct 9, 2026, 11:14 AMReposted by @christabelcoops.bsky.social

How can we revitalise post-industrial towns and fight the far right? A new academic paper from UC Berkley shows how the development of Luxembourg as a financial centre also boosted the economy and reduced the vote share for the National Rally in nearby ex-manufacturing towns in France.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 8, 2026, 8:36 AM

Pleased we seem to have the old-style Conservative party back. Let's have the debate about whether social democracy or laissez-faire works better for most British people. This is a debate social democracy can absolutely win and so much better than arguing whether Bukayo Saka is English or not.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM

Our original research indicated that few former Labour voters in the Muslim community are completely closed to returning to Labour, and these groups show that Burnham is giving some of them encouragement to do so. Our previous research, published in May is here: thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/gon...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM

Some of the group were very positive about new Prime Minister Andy Burnham feeling he was returning Labour to its "core values", others feared that he might be more of the same. Overall the message was that they wanted to see proof of change "They have to perform. They have to show something."

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM

Interestingly, none of the group said they had seen Burnham's apology about Labour's handling of Gaza, though they did acknowledge that Labour was "moving in the right direction" on the issue, though for some this had not gone far enough.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM

In our previous research on Muslim voters, we found that Gaza was a catalyst for switching away from Labour, but there were longer-standing reasons for discontent, including a sense that Labour was not standing up for them against racism and the hard right. This was reflected in our groups

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialOct 7, 2026, 3:01 PM

NEW RESEARCH ON MUSLIM VOTERS Ahead of the Holborn & St Pancras election (1 in 5 residents are Muslim) @thinklabour.bsky.social our.bsky.social ran focus groups to explore what, if anything, has changed. We found a mood of cautious optimism about the new PM thinklabour.substack.com/p/labours-se...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM

Deft political strategy has got the new administration to this point, but now it needs to have the confidence to enact policies which won't be popular in the short-term, in order to make sure transactional voters in particular, feel that Labour is their best choice by the time of the next election.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM

But Labour is still 8 points behind where it was at the General Election. And it faces some incredibly difficult choices, which governments for the last 16 years have ducked because they are painful, but can't be avoided for much longer - on welfare, growth, justice and immigration among others.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM

We also said that the party should make more of its policies to help the economically insecure, such as the Employment Rights Bill and the Renters Rights Bill. They have taken our advice to heart, and the better results are clear to see. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM

Labour is doing better among all three groups, but the biggest improvements are among the economically insecure and left-liberals. We argued in May that Labour should stop treating values-driven voters transactionally, while attempting to signal to transactional voters that it shared their values.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 26, 2026, 12:45 PM

"Who is Andy Burnham For?" looks at which voters the new PM is winning back based on the groups @thinklabour.bsky.social identified in May: values-driven left-liberals, the economically insecure motivated by material concerns and transactional voters focused on delivery. substack.com/inbox/post/2...

@adsquires.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 9:27 AMReposted by @christabelcoops.bsky.social

Good, thoughtful, evidence based thread and article on what Labour should do to win urban voters back from Green. Something for most people to agree with / disagree with / be surprised by.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 9:20 AM

Urban voters have been the mainstay of Labour's vote in the last decade. We're hopeful that the new administration can make sure that the cities stay painted red in the future. thinklabour.co.uk/thinking/pai...

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 9:20 AM

The polling in the report was done before Andy Burnham became PM, and already we are seeing some Green supporters returning to Labour - presumably feeling more reassured about Labour's values. Solving the housing crisis will take longer but this is a really good start.

@christabelcoops.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 9:20 AM

In the report we suggest that attacking the Greens can be seen by some progressive voters as like "kicking a puppy". Highlighting the Greens softness on defence is more believable to Green considerers than more aggressive attacks eg around legalising all drugs.

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