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š³ļø Mapping UK Elections & Collating Polling Data
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@electionmaps.ukWestminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 29% (-1)
RFM: 23% (-2)
CON: 20% (+3)
GRN: 9% (-2)
LDM: 9% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 7-9 Oct.
Changes w/ 30 Sep - 2 Oct.
@electionmaps.ukCrazy how similar this result was to Dover just a few weeks ago.
@electionmaps.ukFor the first time since May 2025, First Past the Post is consistently harming Reform UK. Between May 2025 and May 2026, Reform won 37% of seats on 29% of the vote. Since May, they've won just 22% of seats despite only falling to 25% of the vote.
@electionmaps.ukAggregate Result of the 133 Council By-Elections Since LE2026:
RFM: 26 (+6) | 22% (+11)
CON: 25 (-4) | 18% (-2)
LAB: 24 (-2) | 19% (-4)
LDM: 22 (+5) | 14% (+1)
GRN: 16 (+3) | 15% (-1)
PLC: 10 (-1) | 3% (+1)
Ind: 5 (-5) | 4% (-3)
SNP: 4 (+1) | 3% (-2)
@electionmaps.ukKilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley (Amber Valley) Council By-Election Result: š GRN: 29.5% (+4.0) ā”ļø RFM: 27.0% (New) š³ CON: 16.9% (-15.2) š¹ LAB: 15.9% (-6.1) ā¼ļø RES: 10.8% (New) No Ind (-14.1) or LDM (-6.4) as previous. Green GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2025.
@electionmaps.ukWestminster Voting Intention: LAB: 25% (-2) RFM: 23% (=) CON: 20% (+3) GRN: 11% (-1) LDM: 9% (=) SNP: 3% (=) Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 7 Oct. Changes w/ 30 Sep.
@electionmaps.ukOther Candidates: āļø REU: 0.9% š© MRLP: 0.3% (-0.1) āļø CPA: 0.2% š¢ CLI: 0.2% š· UKIP: 0.2% (=) š£ļø UKV: 0.08% āļø CL: 0.03% š Ind: 0.03% [2/2]
@electionmaps.ukHolborn & St Pancras By-Election Result: š¹ LAB: 45.2% (-3.7) š GRN: 32.8% (+22.4) š³ CON: 7.1% (-0.1) ā”ļø RFM: 5.9% (-0.2) š¶ LDM: 3.4% (-2.4) ā¼ļø RES: 2.5% āļø WPB: 1.2% [1/2] No Inds (-18.9, -1.6, -0.1, -0.0), or SE (-0.2) as previous. Labour HOLD. Changes w/ GE2024.
@electionmaps.ukTurnout in Holborn & St Pancras is 38.8% Low compared to recent Parliamentary By-Elections, but fairly solid historically speaking (above the ā of General Election turnout threshold). GE2024: 54.1%
@electionmaps.ukRosemount/Midstocket (Aberdeen) Council By-Election Result [1st Prefs]: šļø SNP: 27.9% (-9.9) š³ CON: 24.1% (-0.5) š¹ LAB: 17.3% (-4.2) š GRN: 10.7% (+1.4) ā”ļø RFM: 10.5% (New) š¶ LDM: 6.2% (-0.7) š Ind: 2.2% (New) š Ind: 1.2% (New) SNP HOLD - Stage 8. Changes w/ 2022.
@electionmaps.ukMyatt's Fields (Lambeth) Council By-Election Result: š¹ LAB: 46.7% (+10.3) š GRN: 37.1% (-2.0) š¶ LDM: 8.6% (+1.5) š³ CON: 3.4% (-1.8) ā”ļø RFM: 2.6% (-2.7) āļø CPA: 1.2% (New) š© SPGB: 0.4% (New) No Ind (-6.1) or TUSC (-0.8) as previous. Labour HOLD. Changes w/ 2026.
@electionmaps.ukTown (Newcastle-under-Lyme) Council By-Election Result: š¹ LAB: 46.2% (+18.0) ā”ļø RFM: 26.7% (-0.4) š GRN: 12.3% (-9.2) š³ CON: 11.8% (-4.3) š¶ LDM: 2.9% (-4.0) Labour GAIN from Reform UK. Changes w/ 2026.
@electionmaps.ukThe Nowcast Projection for Holborn & St Pancras (caveat: not a specific by-election model) is as follows: š¹ LAB: 39.7% (-9.2) š GRN: 29.3% (+18.9) ā”ļø RFM: 12.2% (+6.1) š³ CON: 7.8% (+0.6) š¶ LDM: 6.0% (+0.2) ā¼ļø RES: 1.6% (New) š Oth: 3.3% (-18.2)
@electionmaps.ukIt's polling day in Holborn & St Pancras, where Green Party Leader Zak Polanski is challenging Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali. š¹ Labour are polling at 27.3% nationally, their highest since December 2024. š Greens are polling at 9.8% nationally, their lowest since September 2025.
@electionmaps.uk@electionmaps.ukWestminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 24% (+1)
CON: 19% (=)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 8% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
RES: 2% (-1)
Via @survation.bsky.social, 2-5 Oct.
Changes w/ 29 Sep.
@electionmaps.ukWestminster Voting Intention: LAB: 29% (+2) RFM: 24% (+3) CON: 21% (-1) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 7% (-2) RES: 4% (-2) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @moreincommonuk.bsky.social, 3-5 Oct. Changes w/ 25-29 Sep.
@electionmaps.ukHolborn & St Pancras By-Election Betting Odds & Implied Win Chance: š¹ LAB: 1/16 | 94% š GRN: 16/1 | 6% Odds from @oddschecker.com, 6th Oct.
@electionmaps.ukWestminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 27% (+3)
RFM: 22% (-3)
CON: 20% (+1)
LDM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 11% (=)
RES: 3% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @yougov.co.uk, 4-5 Oct.
Changes w/ 27-28 Sep.
@electionmaps.ukHolborn & St Pancras may grab the headlines this Thursday, but there are 4 other (council) by-elections taking place:
šļø Rosemount/Midstocket (Aberdeen)
š³ Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley (Amber Valley)
š¹ Myatt's Fields (Lambeth)
ā”ļø Town (Newcastle-under-Lyme)
