G Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris.com)

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 11, 2026, 12:01 PM

Charlie Cook says there's no "blue wave" but a "red undertow." I think he's wrong about this. The Dem Party and candidates are currently more popular across the board than the Republican Party and candidates. And Ds are in better shape than 2018

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-11...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 11, 2026, 12:04 AM

Would recommend consuming something like this discussion instead
www.the-downballot.com/p/gop-gerrym...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 11, 2026, 12:04 AM

I have now read this article, which I was pleased to be interviewed for, and am actually quite dismayed at the both-sidesing of the issue at hand. It is true that “both Dems and Reps gerrymander“ (paraphrasing) but to equivocate the 2 and make that the central framing in 2026 does a real disservice

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 10, 2026, 2:25 PM

Update on redistricting with some numbers from Strength In Numbers here www.newyorker.com/news/the-pol...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 10, 2026, 1:09 PM

I am personally not sure what Trump's approval rating floor is, but it's definitely lower than pundits were predicting in early 2025. It is a possibility that he never gets above the mid-30s again (among all adults)
fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 10, 2026, 12:24 PM

50+1 mentioned!

@onthemedia.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 12:15 AMReposted by @gelliottmorris.com

📻 Show’s up! Featuring @gelliottmorris.com, Jose Olivares, @letsgomathias.bsky.social, and @lilymasonphd.bsky.social: lnk.to/onthemedia/b...

@samwang.bsky.social Oct 8, 2026, 10:34 PMReposted by @gelliottmorris.com

Are Senate polls understating Republican support? Are Democrats really surging in KS/AR/SD? I show evidence that they are actually closely tracking Trump approval, including in red states. Thanks to @gelliottmorris.com data for hard baseline: samwang.substack.com/p/despondent...

@kwcollins.bsky.social Oct 9, 2026, 1:33 AMReposted by @gelliottmorris.com

This was a really good podcast with @gelliottmorris.com and @davidnir.com on how midterm horserace polls could be wrong -- in either direction. Really gets into the weeds in a great way. And as much as I generally hate video podcasts, this one has graphs

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-08...

@ms.now Oct 8, 2026, 4:08 PMReposted by @gelliottmorris.com

The Republican Party has nominated candidates that voters don’t like in states it can’t afford to lose, G. Elliott Morris writes.

Morris is the co-founder of FiftyPlusOne, our official data partner for tracking all the 2026 polls. Dive in here: www.ms.now/opinion/ken-...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 4:22 PM

Perhaps relevant to current handicapping: In 2018, voters who decided who to vote for at the very last minute were the most Democratic group in the electorate

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 3:31 PM

+

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 3:31 PM

<3 thanks man

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 2:47 PM

the nerds have taken over ms now

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 2:47 PM

New from me for MS NOW (part of deal with 50+1): Republicans have a bad candidate problem. Democratic candidates are viewed more favorably than Republicans in every Senate battleground, sometimes with a net gap (fav - unfav) up to 20 points higher (Paxton v Talarico)
www.ms.now/opinion/ken-...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 2:17 PM

FiftyPlusOne is proud to announce a new deal with MS NOW to provide polling averages and interactive data journalism for digital and broadcast platforms!!

blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fiftypluso...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 2:08 PM

News incoming

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 12:37 PM

👀 fiftyplusone.news/polls/govern...

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 12:28 PM

Good pts from Kyle. Many indicators are significantly more Dem than 2018, including POTUS approval and the generic ballot, but the big diff is Democrats are polling about 6 points better on average in red-state Senate seats

@gelliottmorris.com Oct 8, 2026, 12:45 AM

Ruh roh….