Anton Barbashin (@abarbashin.bsky.social)

@abarbashin.bsky.social Jul 29, 2026, 4:04 PM Pinned

Is Trump good or bad for Putin's vision of multipolarity?
The answer is not straightforward.
Check out my latest for ridl.io on why in Russian discourse Trump simultaneously exists as the best "multipolarity advocate" and not that at all
ridl.io/trump-and-ru...

ridl.ioTrump and Russian Multipolarity: Weighing the Pros and Cons – Riddle RussiaAnton Barbashin on the upsides and downsides of Trump’s presidency for the Kremlin

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 7:14 PM

That’s the rumour

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Bottomline: Putin prioritizes comfort, predictability, and elite balance over renewal. The “new elite” gets symbolic representation while real influence stays with the old system.
ridl.io/personnel-on...
5/5

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Regional speakers and Federation Council seats went to loyal bureaucrats from governors’ teams, not military figures. Administrative experience and personal loyalty trumped combat credentials. Even aspirants with war participation were passed over. 4/5

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

New Duma did not become a “military parliament.” Even on generous counts, Ukraine war “veterans” make up only slightly over 10%. They were diluted into low-profile roles rather than given real power. 3/5

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Anton Vaino, Valentina Matviyenko, Sergey Lavrov stay on. Ambitious figures like Medvedev and Kiriyenko remain in undesired roles. Post-election windows closed: Volodin’s record tenure continues, Sobyanin stays mayor, Mishustin remains PM. 2/5

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 12, 2026, 6:30 PM

Putin’s personnel policy is on pause. Even after the Duma elections he stuck to an ultra-conservative approach: longevity for familiar faces, no real reshuffles, and carefully controlled “new elite” entry.
New Andrey Pertsev for ridl.io
Thread 1/5

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 2:06 PM

And it is hypocritical making excuses for Russians with money or residences that EU nations need while pushing for full ban

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 2:05 PM

I am against full visa can period. Having the capacity to obtain a EU or rather have it open is life or death/prison for many Russians that at any point of time can come under fire at home. Fleeing to EU is the only safe option. Everyone else deports back

@abarbashin.bsky.social Oct 10, 2026, 1:02 PM

If you a Russian with a lot of money, EU will lift your sanctions, for everyone else there is a full visa ban proposal from a genius Finnish PM
yle.fi/a/74-20250671

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 8:41 AMReposted by @abarbashin.bsky.social

Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded.
ridl.io/russia-and-b...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 4:54 PMReposted by @abarbashin.bsky.social

OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify.
ridl.io/repression-a...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 5:34 PMReposted by @abarbashin.bsky.social

Kremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability.
How to avoid them:
ridl.io/seven-mistak...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 5:34 PM

Kremlin knows which Russian figures Western analysts actually use. Common mistakes: treating official prices as market prices, ignoring decrees that change what the number means, and reading buffers as proof of stability.
How to avoid them:
ridl.io/seven-mistak...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 4:54 PM

OVD-Info recorded a slowdown in Russia’s repression campaign before and during the elections. The first days after the Duma vote suggest the crackdown is about to intensify.
ridl.io/repression-a...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 8:41 AM

Lukashenko can still claim that he merely adapted to Putin and did everything possible to preserve sovereignty. To a significant extent he succeeded.
ridl.io/russia-and-b...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 8:40 AM

How did Moscow lose its old levers—and what instruments does it still have for promoting its narratives in #Germany public life?
ridl.io/germany-and-...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 29, 2026, 8:40 AM

How did Moscow lose its old levers—and what instruments does it still have for promoting its narratives in #Germany public life?
ridl.io/germany-and-...

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 28, 2026, 8:06 AM

Over a quarter of a million Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were identified by name. Not a full list by far. Aside from lower than desired recruitment rate, this doesn’t seem to bother Putin at all. I can imagine him saying “we’ve lost 27 million during WWII. This is nothing”

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 25, 2026, 7:08 AMReposted by @abarbashin.bsky.social

Do you want to know how exactly the Kremlin cooked this year's Duma elections results?
Check out this ridl.io article
ridl.io/linear-russia/

@abarbashin.bsky.social Sep 24, 2026, 6:51 PMReposted by @abarbashin.bsky.social

New round of mobilization would add strain to Russian political system, but on its own is unlikely to trigger a marked increase in protest activity
ridl.io/mobilization...