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Adam Kucharski

@adamjkucharski.bsky.social

4.1k Following27.1k Followers

Epidemiologist/mathematician. Professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Author of The Rules of Contagion and The Perfect Bet. Views own.

New book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty available now: proof.kucharski.io

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@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 9:03 AM

Yawn. Much quicker to check forms that fill them out

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialOct 5, 2026, 8:58 AM

If you travel a lot and you're not using some form of AI to sort out all your expense receipts, you're missing a trick...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialOct 1, 2026, 11:25 PM

Please don't get your rubbish AI agent to send AI written emails with AI critiques of papers to PhD students, especially if the conclusion is that it's basically all fine. You're just creating nuisance at scale for the people actually out there doing the hard work.

@jhilden.bsky.socialSep 29, 2026, 7:32 PMReposted by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

Finished Proof by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social , would recommend! ”A simplistic view of scientific evidence risks a path of too much faith followed by too much disillusionment” is well put.

Adam Kucharski: Proof, the uncertain science of certaintyEven if we can accumulate sutlicient evidence to answer a particular question, and convince ourselves that it is correct, we next have the issue of how to convince other people. This means working to understand the ladders of true and false information, targeting action at the appropriate step. It is not just about data or research; it is a matter of psychology, politics and prior beliefs.
Faced with random events and elusive causes, it is easy to turn to stories and soundbites. That is why exposure to the underlying methods of science matters so much. A simplistic view of scientific evidence risks a path of too much faith followed by too much disillusionment. From researchers to journalists, societies must get better at communicating how the process works, monsters and all. I often talk about science as like building a house on a swamp, as Ewan Birney put it.
'You have to lay these foundations, and you build bigger struc-tures, but sometimes you just don't get your foundations right and a whole wall collapses.'6
@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 30, 2026, 4:08 PM

Glad you liked it!

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 22, 2026, 12:09 PM

I've definitely submitted without an endorsement before (maybe it carried over a med/biorxiv affiliation...)

@jruizcabrejos.bsky.socialSep 21, 2026, 3:20 PMReposted by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

Little rabbit holes I end up at thanks to @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 21, 2026, 9:20 AM

Rather than being a great democratiser, AI is currently forcing organisations to put up more gates and barriers to keep out the low quality avalanche.

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 21, 2026, 9:20 AM

I suspect we’ll increasing see a return to “you can only submit if you know an insider” systems, like the old-school PNAS ‘contributed’ track. It’s a bit like we’re already seeing with the new ArXiv ‘endorsement’ system...

@melindahaunton.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 9:04 PMReposted by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

All this (even for a different dementia), most especially the bit about not realising stories are stories for a while. 4 is especially hard. Health/social care people are hardwired to resist reducing freedoms, advocating for patient liberty. To fall, wander, and freeze. It is so hard to be hard.

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 17, 2026, 8:18 PM

Alzheimer’s isn’t like you imagine:

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 7:45 PM

And why let doomsday stop you having some fun...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 7:45 PM

OF COURSE space travel was raised as a plan B...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 16, 2026, 7:39 PM

Better make the most of October folks…

(Published in Science in 1960: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...)

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 15, 2026, 8:18 PM

@excel-wang.bsky.socialSep 14, 2026, 10:46 AMReposted by @adamjkucharski.bsky.social

Interesting article. It shows LLM cannot discover causal relationships purely based on the data without experts’ input.

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 13, 2026, 6:13 PM

Tech bros who say they want to ‘solve AI alignment’ would do well to look to history - aligning systems with human values is not just a matter of imposing more logic and mathematical reasoning: kucharski.substack.com/p/solving-ma...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 13, 2026, 8:16 AM

What can AI attempts to do causal inference tell us about the value of domain insights vs scale of raw data?

Read more in my new post: kucharski.substack.com/p/confounded...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 12, 2026, 12:52 PM

Can language models reason their way to effective causal inference? New post: kucharski.substack.com/p/confounded...

@adamjkucharski.bsky.socialSep 9, 2026, 7:01 PM

How much did heat and altitude affect World Cup scoring rates?
And is this even a sensible question to ask?

New post: kucharski.substack.com/p/how-much-d...

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