masterdannychen.pro/general/bein...

Most people prefer to pretend like they have all the steps figured out rather than to face/accept the uncomfortable truth that they aren't entirely sure about their next steps.

#uncertainty #careerpath #blogging #newposts

Uncertainty in Global Construction Costs Approaches $2 Trillion in 2026 #London #United_Kingdom #construction_costs #Uncertainty #Currie_&_Brown

The central bank’s crystal ball has officially developed a crack, turning the once-viable economic forecast into a murky puddle of speculative sludge. In a region where uncertainty is the only stable asset…
#Cracked #Crystal #Ball #Economists #Embrace #Uncertainty #Business #BusinessNews #Satire

#statstab #630 A Tutorial on Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification Using Conformal Prediction

Thoughts: Conformal predictions are getting more popular.

#conformalprediction #frequentist #uncertainty #assumptions #distributions #tutorial

doi.org/10.1177/2515...

LLMs now show calibrated uncertainty—verbalized confidence tracks internal probabilities, so "I'm 70% sure" actually means something. #AI #MachineLearning #LLM #Uncertainty #ExplainableAI

https://freegardner.com/synapse/ai-models-learn-to-express-calibrated-uncertainty.html

Recorded in Oct 2022, five weeks before ChatGPT, #futurist Ursula Eysin told me that predicting the future is a powerless position.

Her answer is #ScenarioPlanning. Her #AI take reads differently now, and so do her 3 rules for turning #uncertainty into a #leadership advantage.

snglrty.co/4bm53UK

As well as being a gripping movie about a pivotal moment in history, #Pressure is full of lessons about decision making, the implications & role of #uncertainty, #data / analyst / population #bias, #risk ownership, team dynamics, #integrity, #leadership, and much more.

www.imdb.com/title/tt3254...

Missing Value Uncertainty: Could Collecting Missing Values Change the Prediction?

David J. Burnett, Surojit Ganguli, Lance M. Kaplan, Devesh Upadhyay, David I. Inouye

Action editor: Michele Caprio

https://openreview.net/forum?id=BRWTS5e03Z

#prediction #estimation #uncertainty

Read the new article ... The Great Unwinding: Why the Sovereign Debt Trap, the AI Capital Bubble, and Multipolar De-Dollarization Are Triggering the Flight to Tangible Scarcity - Click Here cardcoincomic.com/blogs/news/t...

#economy #finance #investment #debt #trade #uncertainty #business

The mechanic is simple.
You pull, and you don't know what comes next.
Might be nothing.
Might be the jackpot.
That not-knowing is the whole engine, and casinos spent decades tuning it so you never get up.

#uncertainty #casinos #gambling #psychology #addiction

Researchers prove universal improvement to quantum uncertainty relations with new noncommutativity-induced terms. The bound becomes exact for two-level systems and becomes more pronounced in mixed states, unveiling previously overlooked quantum contributions.

#QuantumInfo #Uncertainty #News

Running Reflection : Not Knowing
www.yasenkacounseling.com

#running #uncertainty #mindset #wellbeing #decisions

Variational Set Operator Networks: Uncertainty-Aware Meta-Learning via Probabilistic Neural Opera...

William Ryan, Dirk Husmeier, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

Action editor: Fred Roosta

https://openreview.net/forum?id=rLgrHnZtzh

#variational #uncertainty #probabilistic

A #dying #mother ’s letter to her #daughters about pain is a must-read for anyone facing #uncertainty

www.upworthy.com/a-dying-moth...

"The #bankers ignored #uncertainty & #ignorance took over. They collapsed the future into the present & rendered it calculable..but they overlooked instability.. #Pastoralists know that these are inescapable features of complex #systems.": buff.ly/grvUobw

via @aeon.co
#LifeLessons #traditions

He waited 4 months for an agent to decide on a property, because he was emotionally attached.
#RealEstateInvesting #DataDriven #Uncertainty #InvestmentStrategy #PropertyInvesting

Why Real Estate Investing Requires Better Data Before You Buy , With Jeff Emalaba

Full interview in the first comment.

Can you feel it?
That subtle click inside you. That ache that is not quite sadness and not quite joy.
That is not nostalgia only. It is recognition. 🌱
athinkerinnature.substack.com/p/curiosity
#Curiosity #Wonder #Childhood #Uncertainty

“A lot of these #p-doom #estimates are trying to convert #uncertainty to #risk. This doesn’t mean the danger is not real, only that treating them as a percentage in the same way we treat lottery odds as a percentage creates an illusion of precision.” hegemon.substack.com/p/were-all-g...