Russian diesel and reserve releases may ease prices.

But they do not prove that lost throughput has been restored or depleted stocks can be rebuilt.

And they do nothing by themselves to make the next voyage safer. That remains my greatest concern with #TheHormuzCrisis and other conflicts.

Now put this against the disruption caused by #TheHormuzCrisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The IEA's September Oil Market Report says combined net diesel/gasoil exports from the Gulf and Russia in August were 1.6 million barrels PER DAY lower than in February.

I will be doing a deep dive into this over the weekend. How the product will likely move, what the implications are for the seafarers involved and what this may mean for #TheHormuzCrisis

The IRGC has just taken responsibility for the attack on the LPG gas carrier that occurred this morning.

Then they released this absolutely chilling statement.

They will continue to attack merchant ships because they feel they can do so without consequence...

#TheHormuzCrisis

Attack number 16 in 12 days now.

No news of casualties or environmental impact.

I will keep watching to see if there is any more reports from this attack, but this is now approaching the level of systematic terrorism that was occurring at the start of this conflict.

#TheHormuzCrisis

Again won't be reported in Western media I have no doubt.

But the IRGC just threatened merchant shipping once again, and it is not an idle threat. They have already attacked 14 vessels in the last week, and the most recent attack led to 12 seafarers requiring medical evacuation.

#TheHormuzCrisis

When I posted yesterday about the increases in rates and insurance being what translates to maintained higher prices for businesses and consumers, this is what I meant.

This is what happens when dangerous operations caused by #TheHormuzCrisis are compounded by instability in the Red Sea.

That is why the headline can say “oil falls” while the family car, the haulage firm and the supermarket still feel the opposite.

The newspapers show the market has received some relief. The physical supply chain however has received a warning.

#RedSeaCrisis #TheHormuzCrisis

Today we are able to see the contradiction of oil pricing as a result of the new systems created by #TheHormuzCrisis.

More oil is moving and futures have eased. Yet petrol and diesel prices at the pump remain high.

This is a sign of things to come in the new global systems if not fixed.

UKMTO just put up two alerts.

A tanker has been attacked in Hormuz and another vessel in the Bab al’Mandeb reports explosions in the water nearby as it transited.

This is further escalation after 5 days of near continuous attacks on merchant shipping.

#TheHormuzCrisis #MerchantShipSafety

The next 48–72 hours of #TheHormuzCrisis matter more than ever.

We are now watching for the events that determine whether this hardens into a durable, conditional access regime, or breaks into the wider regional war everyone has spent months trying to avoid.

I held off posting a #TheHormuzCrisis update yesterday because there was a lot happening. I have had time to process and analyse as much as I could, and I think we have reached the tipping point.

It is clear now that we are moving toward a resolution, and that is not reassuring given the evidence.

There is an awful lot happening in #TheHormuzCrisis at the moment.

I am currently reading, processing and trying to understand what we are seeing.

I should have a full run down tomorrow, but by then it could all be out of date with how fast events are moving.

In a follow-up to this morning - The USA has present Iran with it's plan.

So we should have some answers shortly about how this is all likely to play out.

#TheHormuzCrisis

Always worth reading what Ash has to say about #TheHormuzCrisis.

I have spent the last few days watching rather than writing about #TheHormuzCrisis.

There has been movement, but not enough to justify forcing events into my old scenario model.

I think we are now in a different phase of the crisis, and I have been building an analysis model for what comes next.

Late alert from the UKMTO.

At some point overnight a vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire. This was extinguished by the crew and the vessel is still underway.

This comes on the eve of the supposed decision by #Trump to end or escalate #TheHormuzCrisis.-

Well who would have guessed it?

Not only is #Trump a leading world expert on #TheHormuzCrisis and it's effects on global trade, he is also an expert on UK law and process.

Despite not even knowing how the laws and constitution of the USA work.

The man is a stone-cold genius.

There's a feel of revenge here. Trump hates that Iran is winning against him, despite all the effort, the weapons and billions levied against him. And so he wants to destroy them, out of utter spite that they have so weakened him. #Trump #TheHormuzCrisis

I think what I find most galling about #Trump and #TheHormuzCrisis is the way he is so casual about wanting to kill people.

Iran has a brutal government and dangerous regime.

But this sociopath is willing to destroy lives to satisfy nothing but his own ego.