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@billarama.bsky.social

Recurring theme in stats is that our probabilistic intuition sucks. I love the birthday problem - estimate the probability that 2 people in the room of about 55 have the same birthday. 83% guessed <50%, a majority <20%. Actual answer: 98%. (Match found on checking 5 students) #teachmath

Poll: how likely is it that 2 people in the room have the same bday? Almost certain 4%, Very likely 2%, Likely 10%, About even 0%, Unlikely 20%, Very unlikely 53% (!), Almost certainly not 10%.